Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Fly-by-wire
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
Media-power
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
Contango
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
Refinery-runs
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
Energy-security?
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
Ponder
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
Trust
Awakening
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
Fear??
'The Dialogue'
Consumption
Do we actually need to worry?
 

Mixed signals

2006-10-13

It is very interesting these days to follow on a grand scale the news in and around the oil and gas industry.
Interesting because we see so many contradictory signals that it seems as if actually no-one seems to know anymore, especially not what or whom to believe.

In this issue you will find many articles from a great variety of sources that carry these contradictory signals.
There are those  that say that we have enough oil and this seems to be supported by some seemingly substantial finds, some very high expectancies for new provinces like the Artics and by the CEO of Saudi Aramco who says that at current production-rate SA has enough oil for 140 years. Doing the simple math of this we are looking at 500 billion barrel of oil that seems to still be expected as producible (!) reserves.
In another article we see one of the peak-oil expert being not at all impressed by the seemingly positive developments because as he says, in looking at expected production figures for the coming 15-20 years: “I look at the facts and not at fantasies.” In another article an analyst, neutral to the matter, concedes that peak-oil experts are mostly well founded in the facts and anti-peak oil experts mostly in slogans. So who now, can we believe?

Similar in the debate on climate-change: from an increasing amount of scientist we get increasingly alarming sounds about climate-change and the expected rise in global temperature has been rising constantly over the last 3-4 years. A conversation about the weather with an old farmer will make clear a lot: the climate is changing and has been changing drastically over the last 50 years.
However there are also scientist from institutes with resounding names that keep declaring this is all not true and “junk-science” and not proven and that we need more time and effort and money to properly research. And then we read that some or many of these institutes have been paid considerably by one or more oil-majors to create this confusion, to spread anti-alarming messages in the press. And how can we now know, whom to believe?

Other articles speak of one of the world-powers that have always made a strong stance for “freedom and democracy” that invites a leader of one of the very restricted “democracies” in Central Asia and treats it as a friend and helper. The country of this friend and helper does have a lot of oil and a friendly and strategically important position in the “great game”, which seems to help.
But what then can be believe of the message of “freedom and democracy”?

The above are just 3 examples of the mixed signals that are being offered from the gathering of articles from all over the world in this issue.
What can we say to it?
The best we can come to is: Use your common sense, do some maths yourself and speak to an old farmer on the way.

Stay sane!

Alexander

Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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