Mixed signals II
Sitting outside looking at the woods turning yellow and red on this lovely afternoon in October, it comes to mind that climate-change can have its good sides: 30 years ago it would be around this time -10 degrees Celsius with a meter of snow; now it is +20 C with full sun and most trees still being green.
Looking through the events of the past weeks, several signals are rising that want to be touched upon:
One is of course the signal of the receding prices of crude oil about which much talk is going on. Some comment focus
their explanation on less (growth in) usage, more reserves in storage and “stability” in the Middle
East. Others point to the relationship with current politics and the coming elections in the US, upon which
others respond by explaining why this cannot be the case.
It is of course amazing to see that one of the major money-houses is suddenly changing its policy on gasoline,
causing a land-slide in selling. There haven”t been any directives, only “strong signals to the
traders”.
Another signal that raises questions is that the head of the International Energy Agency says on a conference that
the prices of oil are way too high. Where were his comments when the oil-price was 20 dollar higher? Or is there a
message in the message?
Of course most people do enjoy the lower prices, if they are passed on, of which we notice very little here in
Europe.
For all importer-countries lower prices will certainly be a boon; for the exporters it may be a bit painful, so
shortly after everyone was talking about oil of 80-100 dollar the barrel that would be imminent. But it may all
change again.
Does all this change something in the reality of things? Actually not, as we are still “using up” 85 million barrels of oil and billions of cubic meter of gas a day and emitting the results of that in the atmosphere. Global reserves are declining, new-founds of any substance are increasingly rare, the climate is changing rapidly and it is questionable whether there will be any solution to it.
Another interesting signal, related to the above, is a remark of a very senior expert and advisor to governments, who
said that he saw some oil-majors becoming vulnerable to take-over from state-owned oil- or gas companies and even
went as fas as predicting the return of state-owned oil-, gas- and energy-companies here in Europe.
Of course this will not happen over night, but it is very interesting to see, even if we cannot really see yet what
this would mean in a world of increasing need and decreasing resources with rapidly changing climatic and
environmental influences.
Stay awake!
Alexander
Responses are always welcome at alexander@gas-oil-power.com
