Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
'The Dialogue'
Do we actually need to worry?

Mixed signals II


Sitting outside looking at the woods turning yellow and red on this lovely afternoon in October, it comes to mind that climate-change can have its good sides: 30 years ago it would be around this time -10 degrees Celsius with a meter of snow; now it is +20 C with full sun and most trees still being green.

Looking through the events of the past weeks, several signals are rising that want to be touched upon:

One is of course the signal of the receding prices of crude oil about which much talk is going on. Some comment focus their explanation on less (growth in) usage, more reserves in storage and “stability” in the Middle East.  Others point to the relationship with current politics and the coming elections in the US, upon which others respond by explaining why this cannot be the case.
It is of course amazing to see that one of the major money-houses is suddenly changing its policy on gasoline, causing a land-slide in selling. There haven”t been any directives, only “strong signals to the traders”.
Another signal that raises questions is that the head of the International Energy Agency says on a conference that the prices of oil are way too high. Where were his comments when the oil-price was 20 dollar higher? Or is there a message in the message?

Of course most people do enjoy the lower prices, if they are passed on, of which we notice very little here in Europe.
For all importer-countries lower prices will certainly be a boon; for the exporters it may be a bit painful, so shortly after everyone was talking about oil of 80-100 dollar the barrel that would be imminent. But it may all change again.

Does all this change something in the reality of things? Actually not, as we are still “using up” 85 million barrels of oil and billions of cubic meter of gas a day and emitting the results of that in the atmosphere. Global reserves are declining, new-founds of any substance are increasingly rare, the climate is changing rapidly and it is questionable whether there will be any solution to it.

Another interesting signal, related to the above, is a remark of a very senior expert and advisor to governments, who said that he saw some oil-majors becoming vulnerable to take-over from state-owned oil- or gas companies and even went as fas as predicting the return of state-owned oil-, gas- and energy-companies here in Europe.
Of course this will not happen over night, but it is very interesting to see, even if we cannot really see yet what this would mean in a world of increasing need and decreasing resources with rapidly changing climatic and environmental influences.

Stay awake!


Responses are always welcome at


Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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