Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
'The Dialogue'
Do we actually need to worry?

The year 2065?


Recently one of the major newspapers here in Germany came with a beautiful full-color picture of the projection of the ozon-hole over the planet and concluded that it was bigger than ever, about the size of the North America (or was this a joke?).
The good news was that the expectation is that the ozone-hole would be closing around the year 2065.
Excuse me? 2065? Meaning almost 60 years from now? Are we supposed to believe this? The weather can not be predicted reliably beyond 3 days, the climate only for about half a year, and whilst the last 5 years the expected sea-level-rising has increased very substantailly several times, we are made to believe that the “scientists” believe the ozone hole will be closing in about 60 years. Does this somehow smell of something?

Currently the film “An Inconvenient Truth” is high in the charts to help awaken the people to the dangers of Global Warming and especially of our way of life. The answer, as is being presented, seems to lie in the acceptance, and follow-up, of the Kyoto-protocal to which already so many countries have signed up, albeit not the biggest polluter-countries on the planet.
The costs would be prohibitive, as they would rise to a 150 billion dollar a year.

Recently several comments appeared about the matter and some were questioning the one-sidedness of it all and questioned what the current half-hearted and mostly political action on CO2 emissions, which are only a small part of the picture, can do against the climate-change, as the reductions envisioned in about half a decade or more, will take another 30 years or so to give any, and possibly not even a measurable reaction of the climate.
We ar coming close here to the illusion of the closing ozone-hole in 2065.

Another comment, from a professor at a business-school in Copenhagen, argued that according to the UN, it would take only 75 billion dollar a year, half the costs of Kyoto, to provide all people on the planet with clean drinking water, health-care and proper education. Shouldn”t we check our prioirities for a moment?
And where are all the costs going that go with Kyoto? 150 billion dollar is a lot of money for very little result and one would need to start looking at where actually the money is going and what the real effects of it are.

At the same time, the whole discussion around CO2-reduction seems more and more suspect and political; in the sense of getting the best position, keeping everone and everything at bay, displaying one seems to be hard working to do something, but all in all the issue is hardly moving and is increasingly being used for “alternative agendas”.

Recently another analysis said that when the world would adopt European fuel-efficiency-standards for their cars and moderate on the usage of air-conditioning in buidlings, we would save between 10 and 15 million barrel of oil per day. If we would adopt best-possible efficiency-standards, we could save much more.
Isn”t that a start? And we would not even need to give up much of our resource-squandering way of life to attain that. Oil-prices would fall, peak oil would be postponed and in general we would have more time to get sensible in finding a more sustainable way of life.

Of course we can cling to pros and cons and the mutual doubting of scientific foundations, the economic arguments and the lobbies of the different industries and manage to create bureaucratic monsters which produce much paper but little result, apart from the earnings for very few people, and dream of a closing ozone-hole in 2065. But know that we cannot eat money and it doesn”t float either and that those who are now obstructing transgression for short-term gain will be long gone, when we discover that we better had done something whilst it still could have made a difference and actually was relatively simple.

And we all can make a difference: check your heating or airco next time you switch it on, and maybe consider the fuel-efficiency next time you buy a car.

Every little bit helps: it is the mind-set that will make the difference.


Responses are always welcome at


Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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