Oil and development?
In this new issue there is again a host of subjects that would want to be discussed here, such as the World Energy
Outlook, projecting a 50 % increase in oil consumption to 125 mm bpd in the coming 25 years in the reference-scenario
and to about 108 mm bpd in the “alternative” scenario. Other subjects could be the oil price which has
changed so drastically over the last months and looks like stabilizing at the moment, or one could write about the
disparity between the projected goals of CO2-reduction, for example in the Kyoto-protocol, and the projected increase
in energy-usage, which show very different directions.
But something else was prevalent this time, showing its presence in articles from Africa, Central Asia, Asia and North America, and it was the connections between the presence of oil and development, or the lack of it.
It is interesting to see that from countries where oil has been discovered recently, notably Uganda and Cambodia, the
expected euphoria was not exposed in the press and the atmosphere was more tinged with caution and apprehension
than with the joy about the expected money that could possibly salvage these poor countries. In both cases
the reality of other, often neighbouring, countries, where the finding of oil caused massive corruption,
environmental damage and brought huge social costs to the people, were a clear warning to what can also happen to
their country if they will not be careful.
Of course these articles were written by intelligent people that have a certain distance to the ruling elite and the
major companies that will enter the country when it is time to develop the oil-richness.
It is hard to understand for many how it is possible that countries that are endowed by vast mineral richness, and
develop these with the help of companies and countries that profess transparency and anti-kleptocratic laws, end up
with a population that is poorer than it was before the minerals were developed. Instead they find themselves with
their social structures destroyed, an environment that is polluted for the coming decades and
with “disappearance” of multi-billion dollars.
The good news is that it is being spoken about, written about and thought about, even if not too much is happening yet. But what is becoming clear is that the Western world, having (had) a great part in this, is faced with “unveiling” some of the pathways along which this is happening. This may open up some possibilities for countries that are still at the beginning of the journey to become an oil- or gas producer, to learn from the mistakes and be more careful with whom or what they allow themselves to deal with.
A little step at a time.
Alexander
Responses are welcome at alexander@gas-oil-power.com
