Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
'The Dialogue'
Do we actually need to worry?

Oil and development?


In this new issue there is again a host of subjects that would want to be discussed here, such as the World Energy Outlook, projecting a 50 % increase in oil consumption to 125 mm bpd in the coming 25 years in the reference-scenario and to about 108 mm bpd in the “alternative” scenario. Other subjects could be the oil price which has changed so drastically over the last months and looks like stabilizing at the moment, or one could write about the disparity between the projected goals of CO2-reduction, for example in the Kyoto-protocol, and the projected increase in energy-usage, which show very different directions.

But something else was prevalent this time, showing its presence in articles from Africa, Central Asia, Asia and North America, and it was the connections between the presence of oil and development, or the lack of it.

It is interesting to see that from countries where oil has been discovered recently, notably Uganda and Cambodia, the expected euphoria was not exposed in the press and the atmosphere was more tinged with caution and apprehension than with the joy about the expected money that could possibly salvage these poor countries. In both cases the reality of other, often neighbouring, countries, where the finding of oil caused massive corruption, environmental damage and brought huge social costs to the people, were a clear warning to what can also happen to their country if they will not be careful.
Of course these articles were written by intelligent people that have a certain distance to the ruling elite and the major companies that will enter the country when it is time to develop the oil-richness.
It is hard to understand for many how it is possible that countries that are endowed by vast mineral richness, and develop these with the help of companies and countries that profess transparency and anti-kleptocratic laws, end up with a population that is poorer than it was before the minerals were developed. Instead they find themselves with their social structures destroyed, an environment that is polluted for the coming decades and with “disappearance” of multi-billion dollars.

The good news is that it is being spoken about, written about and thought about, even if not too much is happening yet. But what is becoming clear is that the Western world, having (had) a great part in this, is faced with “unveiling” some of the pathways along which this is happening. This may open up some possibilities for countries that are still at the beginning of the journey to become an oil- or gas producer, to learn from the mistakes and be more careful with whom or what they allow themselves to deal with.

A little step at a time.


Responses are welcome at

Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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