The year of shifting balances
With this last update of Alexander”s Gas & Oil Connections for the year 2006 we want to look back a bit
before looking forward.
The year 2006 was a year of substantial changes and shifting balances that give some indication of where it is all moving to: it was the year of the nationalisations and the increased influence (and take) of some governments on the resources of their country; of changing partnerships and moving regional balances, shifting towards greater influence of national energy companies, more country-to-country, government-to-government dealings and deals. It was also a year of a seemingly rebalancing of the market, with reduction of the influence of speculation and hedging and a return to a somewhat more moderate oil-price, with an outlook for more stability in the price for the coming years (unless of course someone decides it is time to start another war).
2006 was also a year in which climate-change became more of a biting reality in quite some corners of the planet, with unusual temperatures, very fast declining ice-caps, severe droughts, an ozone-hole that was bigger than ever (but which is said to be due to close in 2065!) and a growing realisation that all the targets set for reduction of global emissions look very nice on paper but have very little grounding in reality.
2006 was also a year of geo-political changes and revelations, in which it became clear that help often means self-help and “freedom and democracy” sometimes means war, oil and projects and that a war started from the wrong basis and mind-set cannot be won and can bring exactly that which is said to be aimed at preventing; terror brings more terror, not less.
But 2006 was also the year that renewables and bio-fuels became much more accepted and are now seen to be a more substantial part of the solution, with some very interesting discoveries and new developments opening up real opportunities for the future.
And what will 2007 bring? It looks like the movement towards a greater assertiveness of developing countries with
resources will continue (which is also very needed seen the fact that some countries still get somewhere between 3 to
10 %, or less, of royalties on their resources) and that the importance and influence of the vast upcoming economies
of India and China will increase, moving the geopolitical centre of the world slowly more eastwards.
At the same time, with the development of these countries, some questions that are facing humanity will become more
prominent and urgent: where will it all come from (the energy and resources for the development) and what kind of
world do we want to leave to the coming generations?
Coming from a culture that has squandered the resources of the planet the last 150 years this may be a tough question
to ask, but it becomes ever more clear that something needs to change drastically, and quite soon, if we want to
prevent humanity to run against the brick wall of depleted resources, a defunct economic (and monetary) system and a
rapid degeneration of minds.
So whilst actually we can look forward towards positive developments on short term at the level of energy, prices and geopolitical balances, the long term picture is quite serious and frightening. Remember: most of you reading this will still live in about 20 - 30 years, but this means that you may outlive quite some resources and sources of water and oxygen (our forests and woods).
Nevertheless I want to wish you all a very good end-of-the-year 2006 period (if you live according to this Western,
Christian-based time-schedule) and wish you all the best for the coming period, with health, success and
progression.
We will be back with our next Update in January 2007.
Alexander
We always look forward to comments at alexander@gas-oil-power.com
