Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Fly-by-wire
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
Media-power
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
Contango
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
Refinery-runs
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
Energy-security?
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
Ponder
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
Trust
Awakening
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
Fear??
'The Dialogue'
Consumption
Do we actually need to worry?
 

The year of shifting balances

2006-12-21


With this last update of Alexander”s Gas & Oil Connections for the year 2006 we want to look back a bit before looking forward.

The year 2006 was a year of substantial changes and shifting balances that give some indication of where it is all moving to: it was the year of the nationalisations and the increased influence (and take) of some governments on the resources of their country; of changing partnerships and moving regional balances, shifting towards greater influence of national energy companies, more country-to-country, government-to-government dealings and deals. It was also a year of a seemingly rebalancing of the market, with reduction of the influence of speculation and hedging and a return to a somewhat more moderate oil-price, with an outlook for more stability in the price for the coming years (unless of course someone decides it is time to start another war).

2006 was also a year in which climate-change became more of a biting reality in quite some corners of the planet, with unusual temperatures, very fast declining ice-caps, severe droughts, an ozone-hole that was bigger than ever (but which is said to be due to close in 2065!) and a growing realisation that all the targets set for reduction of global emissions look very nice on paper but have very little grounding in reality.

2006 was also a year of geo-political changes and revelations, in which it became clear that help often means self-help and “freedom and democracy” sometimes means war, oil and projects and that a war started from the wrong basis and mind-set cannot be won and can bring exactly that which is said to be aimed at preventing; terror brings more terror, not less.

But 2006 was also the year that renewables and bio-fuels became much more accepted and are now seen to be a more substantial part of the solution, with some very interesting discoveries and new developments opening up real opportunities for the future.

And what will 2007 bring? It looks like the movement towards a greater assertiveness of developing countries with resources will continue (which is also very needed seen the fact that some countries still get somewhere between 3 to 10 %, or less, of royalties on their resources) and that the importance and influence of the vast upcoming economies of India and China will increase, moving the geopolitical centre of the world slowly more eastwards.
At the same time, with the development of these countries, some questions that are facing humanity will become more prominent and urgent: where will it all come from (the energy and resources for the development) and what kind of world do we want to leave to the coming generations?
Coming from a culture that has squandered the resources of the planet the last 150 years this may be a tough question to ask, but it becomes ever more clear that something needs to change drastically, and quite soon, if we want to prevent humanity to run against the brick wall of depleted resources, a defunct economic (and monetary) system and a rapid degeneration of minds.

So whilst actually we can look forward towards positive developments on short term at the level of energy, prices and geopolitical balances, the long term picture is quite serious and frightening. Remember: most of you reading this will still live in about 20 - 30 years, but this means that you may outlive quite some resources and sources of water and oxygen (our forests and woods).

Nevertheless I want to wish you all a very good end-of-the-year 2006 period (if you live according to this Western, Christian-based time-schedule) and wish you all the best for the coming period, with health, success and progression.
We will be back with our next Update in January 2007.

Alexander

We always look forward to comments at alexander@gas-oil-power.com
 

 

Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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