Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Fly-by-wire
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
Media-power
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
Contango
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
Refinery-runs
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
Energy-security?
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
Ponder
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
Trust
Awakening
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
Fear??
'The Dialogue'
Consumption
Do we actually need to worry?
 

PPP: Prices, poverty and politics

2007-02-01

Reading through the many articles in this issue there are a few impressions that rise to the surface in considering the state of affairs in the industry.

The first is the current oil-price: from a high of 78 dollar only a few month ago, the price has now gone down to 53 dollar, with the apparent intention to stay at this level for the coming time. How come, one asks, that the situation in the market can change so rapidly so drastically, whilst seemingly the fundamentals haven”t changed that much?
Most speculators seem gone, the word “terror-premium” or “war-premium” has disappeared from the vocabulary and we seem to have so much oil in the market that many of the producers feel urged to cut production substantially to try to keep the price at least at this level.
Of course it is a good thing for the global economy to have a “modest” and stable oil-price and for the oil-importing countries and their inhabitants it is very pleasant. At the same time it may be quite painful for quite some exporting countries, that now see a substantial slump in their income, and in their projections.
It all seems quite natural, and it may be. Nevertheless it opens a door to questions about how free the market is for real, and how it is possible to go in such a short time from extreme speculation and volatilty to such relative stability and quietness?

Another issue that rose out from the multitude of articles, concerned the extreme poverty that occurred in several countries in Africa, after oil had been found. Whilst hundred of billions of dollars have just disappeared, and millions of barrels of oil are “not accounted for”, the environmental and social degradation has magnified, which is now resulting in an ever more explosive situation.
How come this is possible in a world where everything can be followed, traced or seen “from above”?

The third P that rose in this issue is from Politics, referring to the geo-political manouvring that is taking place in the Middle East at the moment. This can hardly be commented in short, and you are urged to read for yourself, so you may be informed, and warned.

We can hope that the seeming stabilty of the market may last, so we may add the P of prosperity, that can result from a reliable, and free, market.

Keep your eyes open,

Alexander


Comments are always welcome at alexander@gas-oil-power.com

Alexander's Commentary

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