A different reality
This issue carries some surprises and opens the question in what reality we sometimes live.
The first projected reality concerns the expected future demand of oil and energy that is being talked about as if it is a matter-of-fact: 120 mm bpd in 2020 or as Mr. Solana said recently: “World energy consumption is set to increase by well over 50 % over the next 25 years”.
Is that so?
One article in this update tells that for the first time in 20 years the OECD, consisting of 30 developed countries and accounting for 60 % of global oil demand of 85 mm bpd, has used 0,6 % less oil in 2006 than in the year before.
Another article states that US oil demand declined in 2006 with 1.1 %
And in the Asia-section it can be read that the growth of energy need of China had gone from double digit to a mere 6.5 % last year.
It seems that, helped by the weather and the changing climate, a rapid diminishment of growth of demand is taking place. With the developments of alternatives, renewables and increased efficiency it seems that the growth in demand, even including Asia, may, by far, not be in the order as has been projected.
This would also lead to the question of the real need for the multitude of major energy projects that are being planned at the moment, anticipating an antiquated need-profile.
In the news and articles around the Iraqi Draft Oil Law, which is being presented at the moment, difference in what is reality seems to be the most important issue. What is reality when one of the most important laws for a country is made in another country to serve its needs and subsequently is being seen as a sell-out?
The third reality is a perceived reality which turns out different and is a surprise:
In the article” Privatization is key to Iran”s development” it can be read that the
Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei issued a decree to privatize state industries by amending Article 44 of the Constitution, which had banned private ownership of state institutions.
Talking about changing realities.
Life can be full of surprises.
Alexander
Responses are always welcome at Alexander@gas-oil-power.com
