Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Fly-by-wire
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
Media-power
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
Contango
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
Refinery-runs
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
Energy-security?
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
Ponder
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
Trust
Awakening
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
Fear??
'The Dialogue'
Consumption
Do we actually need to worry?
 

Projections and reality

2007-03-28

In this new issue there are several main streams that can be discovered in the  350+ new articles added to the site today.

One issue where projections will meet reality is in the multiple pipelines, LNG-trains, regassification-installations, refineries, production-sites, tankers, LNG-tankers, storage-sites, ports and other major projects that are being planned at the moment.
Whilst already the market is being faced with a shortage of qualified workers, and an ageing of the remaining one, there is also a strong increase in steel-prices, which have risen 5-6-fold over the last 6-7 years, clearly endangering viability of many projects.
How many of the announced projects will actually be realised is to be seen. What the effects on the global energy-situation will be is an open question.

Another important issue that is catching the attention at the moment is the political firework that is being displayed on the very much needed reduction of emissions to curb or diminish human induced effects on the climate. If we look at the press-coverage and political declarations these days we can start to believe that CO2 is the main culprit and all attention is focussed around this issue. Whilst CO2 is indeed a seemingly easy to measure factor in the whole, it is only ONE of the many factors that have a detrimental effect on the global climate, with methane-emissions (venting and flaring), dirt, soot, and the multiple poisonous cocktails that are being emitted into our common “Lebensraum” called atmosphere getting on the backburner of the attention.
Everything seems to get reduced into easy-to-disgorge semi-scientific sloganistic PR-texts in order to score with political activism and high-tech projects and gadgets, of which the effects are often not more than that small groups of people can score politically or make vast amounts of money with it, but where the questions of necessity and actual effect on the climate seems far away.

A third projection-versus-reality issue is the projections made about the reductions in emissions of the different economies in the world. Already the discussion is that the emerging economies, especially China, but also India and several Latin-American and African countries, are becoming a threat to the projections of emission-reduction the Western/rich/”developed” countries see are needed to try to prevent a worse climate catastrophe than currently seems to be coming our way. Whilst the current quagmire of human induced part of the climate change is caused almost exclusively by the 20 % of the world-population that are living in an energy- and resource-wasting manner, it is exactly this small part of human-kind that now starts to say that the other 80 % need to start reducing their energy-usage. And although much improvement is obviously needed here, and mostly also recognised, it is still one human using 30-35 barrel per person per year saying to another person using 1-5 barrel per person per year that he should reduce pollution, to which much can be said, but not that it is reasonable, fair or even realistic.
What however will happen when those 2 billion people now on a much reduced energy-diet, will start to take their “right” to become as wasteful as the “developed” economies remains to be seen. But it could help if energy-reduction would start there where it is most needed and obvious.

As a last thing in this editorial, we can look at the projections that are being made about bio-fuels and their part in the overall energy-mix in the future. Whilst the whole transition has not even started yet in a serious way, already it becomes clear that we will need to make choices, for example between driving a car or eating (unfortunately mostly it is one person driving OR another one having something to eat).

And these are only a few of the projections that are being made, for whatever gain some people will have from it, but much of it has little to do with reality.

Keep your eyes open!,

Alexander

Responses are always welcome at Alexander@gas-oil-power.com

 

Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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