Projections and reality
In this new issue there are several main streams that can be discovered in the 350+ new articles added to the site today.
One issue where projections will meet reality is in the multiple pipelines, LNG-trains,
regassification-installations, refineries, production-sites, tankers, LNG-tankers, storage-sites, ports and other
major projects that are being planned at the moment.
Whilst already the market is being faced with a shortage of qualified workers, and an ageing of the remaining one,
there is also a strong increase in steel-prices, which have risen 5-6-fold over the last 6-7 years, clearly
endangering viability of many projects.
How many of the announced projects will actually be realised is to be seen. What the effects on the global
energy-situation will be is an open question.
Another important issue that is catching the attention at the moment is the political firework that is being
displayed on the very much needed reduction of emissions to curb or diminish human induced effects on the climate. If
we look at the press-coverage and political declarations these days we can start to believe that CO2 is the main
culprit and all attention is focussed around this issue. Whilst CO2 is indeed a seemingly easy to measure factor in
the whole, it is only ONE of the many factors that have a detrimental effect on the global climate, with
methane-emissions (venting and flaring), dirt, soot, and the multiple poisonous cocktails that are being emitted into
our common “Lebensraum” called atmosphere getting on the backburner of the attention.
Everything seems to get reduced into easy-to-disgorge semi-scientific sloganistic PR-texts in order to score with
political activism and high-tech projects and gadgets, of which the effects are often not more than that small groups
of people can score politically or make vast amounts of money with it, but where the questions of necessity and
actual effect on the climate seems far away.
A third projection-versus-reality issue is the projections made about the reductions in emissions of the different
economies in the world. Already the discussion is that the emerging economies, especially China, but also India and
several Latin-American and African countries, are becoming a threat to the projections of emission-reduction the
Western/rich/”developed” countries see are needed to try to prevent a worse climate catastrophe than
currently seems to be coming our way. Whilst the current quagmire of human induced part of the climate change is
caused almost exclusively by the 20 % of the world-population that are living in an energy- and resource-wasting
manner, it is exactly this small part of human-kind that now starts to say that the other 80 % need to start reducing
their energy-usage. And although much improvement is obviously needed here, and mostly also recognised, it is still
one human using 30-35 barrel per person per year saying to another person using 1-5 barrel per person per year that
he should reduce pollution, to which much can be said, but not that it is reasonable, fair or even realistic.
What however will happen when those 2 billion people now on a much reduced energy-diet, will start to take their
“right” to become as wasteful as the “developed” economies remains to be seen. But it could
help if energy-reduction would start there where it is most needed and obvious.
As a last thing in this editorial, we can look at the projections that are being made about bio-fuels and their part in the overall energy-mix in the future. Whilst the whole transition has not even started yet in a serious way, already it becomes clear that we will need to make choices, for example between driving a car or eating (unfortunately mostly it is one person driving OR another one having something to eat).
And these are only a few of the projections that are being made, for whatever gain some people will have from it, but much of it has little to do with reality.
Keep your eyes open!,
Alexander
Responses are always welcome at Alexander@gas-oil-power.com
