Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
'The Dialogue'
Do we actually need to worry?

A box of Pandora?


Amongst the many issues in this update there was one item which caught the attention because of its possibly far-reaching consequences. The article was found in a South-African newspaper and was about something that was happening in Russia: a challenge to the reserve estimates that some companies use, especially to boost up their share-price.
The reserve estimates came from one of the most famous reserve-estimates companies in the world, a US company, and its estimates are being used all over the world. And now they are being challenges as being “modified” to serve other purposes than that for which they are meant to be used, namely reserve-estimating.

Of course this can easily be done away with as another political game from the Russian authorities to increase their grip on their resources, but wait: wasn”t there a few months ago a similar news-article from Bolivia, who threw the company responsible for reserve-estimates out of the country for “dangerously overstating reserves”?

Of course again this can be looked at in a political way and be done away with as a political or populist act of a country wanting to get a greater grip on its own resources.

But is it?

What if it is true? What if indeed many reserves only exist on the papers that are meant to transport the possible financial value or the possible revenue-stream of the future?

We might have another problem next to the peak oil and peak gas; we may have the problem of gas and oil that is counted but never existed. And if we look at the “Whodunnit” we may come again back to the mentioned, and famous, company that was accused and see that a very large part of the estimated reserves, all over the world, have been estimated by this company and that apparently this practice is more-or-less generally accepted. So the problem might be bigger than we easily can do away with.

After we had decades of wild estimates of possible reserves in politically sensitive areas, just to serve political reasons, now we may have wild estimates of possible reserves that will end up where the other wild estimates also ended up; in the dustbin.
And if we look at the scale this has been happening, we may end up realising that an early opening up of the box of Pandora might be a blessing, because with some things it is better to know them early.

So, my question to all oil-companies and share-holders: how sure are you about your reserve-estimates?

I will look forward to answers and comments.



Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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