Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Fly-by-wire
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
Media-power
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
Contango
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
Refinery-runs
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
Energy-security?
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
Ponder
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
Trust
Awakening
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
Fear??
'The Dialogue'
Consumption
Do we actually need to worry?
 

Expectation, projections, contradictions.

2007-06-14


Sometimes things just do not go as everyone expects them to go or as they have been projected to go.

In this issue there are again a few examples for this, in different forms, in different places.

So there is Latin America that is not only ever more taking its resources back into its own hands, but is now also withdrawing from institutes as the Worldbank and the IMF and organising their own financial institute to support their development. The reasoning that is being given is that the mentioned institutes are seen to be instruments of the big industries and powers that have created havoc in their economies and actually were instrumental in keeping the population poor, or making them even poorer, whilst pulling huge profits from the resources they extracted from the different countries.
Seen within the bigger context of the developments around these institutes also in other places it is very interesting and worth keeping an eye on.

Then there are the biofuels; the big hope for replacing the hydrocarbon fuels in the future, reducing dependence on “foreign” sources and also reducing emissions in an attempt to reduce the impact of our non-sustainable way of living.
However, after the discovery that huge areas of prime rainforest were being cut down to plant monocultures of palm-oil trees, it is now ever more becoming clear that most biofuels-crops demand more, or far more, energy, than ever can be saved by or gotten out of the biofuels. The Energy Returned on Energy Invested is in most cases simply negative. And when then the excessive amounts of water needed to grow these crops are taking into account, as well as the erosion, the replacement of food-crops by fuel-crops and the subsequent effects this has, we are looking at a picture which in many cases is even worse than having hydrocarbon fuels. But these are the ones we want to get away from, or reduce our dependence from. So it seems we have a slight dilemma here.

But then we may rejoice, for in Asia some huge oil and gas fields have been discovered, with several billions of barrels oil and very substantial quantities of gas and the promise for more. But then there is some sobering consideration here as well: A field with “proven” reserves of 10 billion barrel gives, with extraction-figures of about 20 – 30 %, a quantity of 2 – 3 billion barrel, still very substantial. When we then look at the current global usage of 87 million barrel per day, meaning one billion barrel of oil every 11,5 day, we look at the fact that even such a huge field of 10 billion barrel, can only “help out” for a period of one month of global usage, if and when it has come on stream.

At the same time world-leaders are gathering and bickering about reducing emissions, whether “voluntarily” or not, but we also see all statistics and projections telling us that energy-consumptions will rise very substantially in the future and oil-demand may be rising to 20, 30 or even 50 % over the current level. This seems somehow contradictory, and it is.

By the politicians and the controlled media, we are being lulled in the belief that something is being done to save our future. And something is being done, but whether, looking at the bigger picture and the reality of the situation, it is actually helpful, may be questioned.

As Einstein once said: “You can”t solve a problem from the mindset that has created it.”
It may seem that we need to look at the mindset that has created our problem, to see what needs to change there, before we can come to any substantial, long-term reality-based solution.
But changing a mind-set or a way of thinking may prove to be much more challenging than changing a technology, especially because it can only start with each individual looking at themselves.

Enjoy the reading,

Alexander

 

Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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