Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
'The Dialogue'
Do we actually need to worry?

Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves


Reflecting on the content of this large Update, three main items jumped out as being especially noteworthy: Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves.

In Europe there is currently a frenzy going on to plan and project multiple pipelines to apparently try to secure the fuels for the future of the continent. Plans are chasing each other and geopolitics seems to be the greatest driver, more so than the actual need for oil and gas, which might not increase enough to cater for the need for quite some or most of these pipelines. Whilst Europe is divided in its stance, based on differing perceptions of the apparent problem, it is increasingly becoming a playfield in the struggle for control, apparently being in need for “help” from far friends that seem to know so well what is good for it.
A host of articles is covering the subject in the Europe-sections.

Some encouraging news can be found around this theme. Whilst it has become clear that palm-oil is in many ways much more destructive than hydrocarbon oil, due to the massive clearing of swamps and primary rainforest in the plantation-region, and that grain-based ethanol and food-crop-replacing bio-fuel monocultures may be one road to revolution and disaster, it is very encouraging to see that China has understood the danger of this very fast and is banning grain-based ethanol and is actively searching for a right balance between food-crops and bio-fuel crops. It is of course somewhat difficult to understand for many that, whilst substantial parts of humanity are starving and dying from lack of food, others are transforming the main and basic food ingredients into a fuel that is being burnt to run a car.
This gets an even harder edge when it becomes known that due to climate-change grain- and food production is going down.
With the example of China a door may be opened to a better and more sustainable balance between the need for bio-fuels and the long-term need for food. In the end you can”t feed on biodiesel and you can”t eat money either.

In the Middle East sections there are a few articles on a recent report that promised at least 100 bn barrel of oil in the Western part of Iraq. This report has been given lots of attention, especially in the Western(-controlled) media but has found much scepticism and some scorn with specialists from the area, who dismissed the report as being politically motivated. This brings again to the surface that we actually do not know how much is hidden in oil- or gas fields for real, being completely dependent on a very small club of people and companies that seem (or say) to know, and almost all major sources of figures and statistics that copy these figures (and from each other).

In this there are two issues: one is the politically motivated stating of reserves, as we have seen with the Caspian, are seeing about the Arctic and now Iraq and in many cases in the Middle East.

The other issue is that reserves are being (over-)stated to help to maximize book-value, to help to maximize “shareholders value”. This seems to be common practice among oil and gas-companies that are trading on the “free-markets”. That this may be a practice that one day will back-fire is clear, as we will be looking at fields that may suddenly be empty much earlier than expected.
That this may add to the speed in which peak oil&gas may be upon us is also clear.

So whilst there is some good news, many critical issues remain.

Not all that is shiny is real gold.

Enjoy the Update.


Comments are always welcome at

Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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