A touch of globality
There is a host of interesting subjects in this update, of which only a few can be mentioned.
Arbitrarily we can start with Trinidad & Tobago, where it has been made official that with current production its
gas will plateau in 9 years and probably will run out not too long after. However, there are a host of projects
waiting to come on stream quite soon: an aluminium-smelter, a steel-complex, a gas-to-liquids-project a fertilizer-
and a methanol-plant, all requiring huge amounts of gas.
But that is not all, as the government has further projects lined up: a Caribbean gas pipeline, a syngas-project, a
polypropylene plant, an ethylene plant and another LNG-train, stretching the reserves even further.
And of course there is a strongly growing internal demand.
Either T&T needs to get very busy with finding new fields, as current replacement is near zero, or it might
experience some tough times in the near future, with very expensive plants on its land and a lot of unfulfilled
contracts, and probably a population that is not very happy when their gas is being siphoned off for all those
oversized projects.
These developments may also be of some concern to the US, as most of the current and future LNG is meant to go there,
as well as a large part of the other products envisaged to be produced.
It may also be of interest to see how the contracts for these projects look like and what will happen when the gas runs out long before the installations and projected profits have been paid for.
Of quite a different nature is what is happening in the rest of Latin America: with the help of its vast resources and a very different mind-set of its leader, Venezuela is creating a new unity amongst the countries. Helping out with fuel at reduced costs, loans that help countries to break free from the strongholds of some multinational lenders, joining up and helping to finance much needed projects and basically promising to share the resources towards a greater independence of the continent of its historical bonds, President Chavez is creating a different environment in Latin America, much appreciated by the many poorer countries and citizens, much vindicated by those who see their influence waning.
On the other side of the planet, in Asia, also a new group-forming process is taking place. Here, a group of local energy producing- and consuming countries is joining up towards a greater energy security, with a host of interconnecting energy-projects and more independence from the “international markets”.
In Europe the pipeline-frenzy continues: pipelines are being proposed in a speed that makes it almost impossible to keep up, especially as it is completely unclear how many of these projects are actually viable, realistic, or have enough sources. Viewed from the outside it often looks more like a bidding-game of the “great powers”, often competing on foreign soil, then a serious attempt to alleviate the energy-needs of the future
In North America much action is undertaken towards energy-security and energy independence; on the one hand there is the energy-partnership between Mexico, the USA and Canada, which, looking at the comments from Mexico and Canada, seems somewhat one-sided. On the other hand there is in the USA a revitalisation of thoughts towards greater “energy-independence” with efforts towards strongly expanding ethanol-production as well as renewed interest in shale-oil, oil & tar sands and more indigenous energy production.
This all is very interesting to follow, as it is indicative of changes in the international balances and markets. Reason for concern is however, that there is generally very little mention of reducing energy demand, nor of the consequences of the effects of a great increase in the production from tarsands, bitumen, shale-oil and the like.
On the one hand we see much talk and effort being put in the upholdance of the Kyoto-initiative, which envisages a
reduction of emissions.
In line with this we see for example that Russia and Nigeria, two of the biggest gas-flarer of this world, are now
getting serious to reduce the squandering of the billions of cubic meters of gas and the pollution this causes.
On the other hand we see ever more oil & gas production, and ever heavier oil-sources to be developed, with unknown (but vast) quantities of emissions to be expected.
How these two fit together, or will be made to fit together, is something that will need some more thought.
Alexander
Responses are always welcome at alexander@gas-oil-power.com
