Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Fly-by-wire
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
Media-power
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
Contango
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
Refinery-runs
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
Energy-security?
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
Ponder
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
Trust
Awakening
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
Fear??
'The Dialogue'
Consumption
Do we actually need to worry?
 

A touch of globality

2007-09-11


There is a host of interesting subjects in this update, of which only a few can be mentioned.

Arbitrarily we can start with Trinidad & Tobago, where it has been made official that with current production its gas will plateau in 9 years and probably will run out not too long after. However, there are a host of projects waiting to come on stream quite soon: an aluminium-smelter, a steel-complex, a gas-to-liquids-project a fertilizer- and a methanol-plant, all requiring huge amounts of gas.
But that is not all, as the government has further projects lined up: a Caribbean gas pipeline, a syngas-project, a polypropylene plant, an ethylene plant and another LNG-train, stretching the reserves even further.
And of course there is a strongly growing internal demand.

Either T&T needs to get very busy with finding new fields, as current replacement is near zero, or it might experience some tough times in the near future, with very expensive plants on its land and a lot of unfulfilled contracts, and probably a population that is not very happy when their gas is being siphoned off for all those oversized projects.
These developments may also be of some concern to the US, as most of the current and future LNG is meant to go there, as well as a large part of the other products envisaged to be produced.

It may also be of interest to see how the contracts for these projects look like and what will happen when the gas runs out long before the installations and projected profits have been paid for.

Of quite a different nature is what is happening in the rest of Latin America: with the help of its vast resources and a very different mind-set of its leader, Venezuela is creating a new unity amongst the countries. Helping out with fuel at reduced costs, loans that help countries to break free from the strongholds of some multinational lenders, joining up and helping to finance much needed projects and basically promising to share the resources towards a greater independence of the continent of its historical bonds, President Chavez is creating a different environment in Latin America, much appreciated by the many poorer countries and citizens, much vindicated by those who see their influence waning.

On the other side of the planet, in Asia, also a new group-forming process is taking place. Here, a group of local energy producing- and consuming countries is joining up towards a greater energy security, with a host of interconnecting energy-projects and more independence from the “international markets”.

In Europe the pipeline-frenzy continues: pipelines are being proposed in a speed that makes it almost impossible to keep up, especially as it is completely unclear how many of these projects are actually viable, realistic, or have enough sources. Viewed from the outside it often looks more like a bidding-game of the “great powers”, often competing on foreign soil, then a serious attempt to alleviate the energy-needs of the future

In North America much action is undertaken towards energy-security and energy independence; on the one hand there is the energy-partnership between Mexico, the USA and Canada, which, looking at the comments from Mexico and Canada, seems somewhat one-sided. On the other hand there is in the USA a revitalisation of thoughts towards greater “energy-independence” with efforts towards strongly expanding ethanol-production as well as renewed interest in shale-oil, oil & tar sands and more indigenous energy production.

This all is very interesting to follow, as it is indicative of changes in the international balances and markets. Reason for concern is however, that there is generally very little mention of reducing energy demand, nor of the consequences of the effects of a great increase in the production from tarsands, bitumen, shale-oil and the like.

On the one hand we see much talk and effort being put in the upholdance of the Kyoto-initiative, which envisages a reduction of emissions.
In line with this we see for example that Russia and Nigeria, two of the biggest gas-flarer of this world, are now getting serious to reduce the squandering of the billions of cubic meters of gas and the pollution this causes.

On the other hand we see ever more oil & gas production, and ever heavier oil-sources to be developed, with unknown (but vast) quantities of  emissions to be expected.

How these two fit together, or will be made to fit together, is something that will need some more thought.

Alexander

Responses are always welcome at alexander@gas-oil-power.com

 

Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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