Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Fly-by-wire
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
Media-power
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
Contango
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
Refinery-runs
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
Energy-security?
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
Ponder
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
Trust
Awakening
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
Fear??
'The Dialogue'
Consumption
Do we actually need to worry?
 

Energy-security?

2007-09-25


In looking at the issue of energy-security, it became clear that the issue is very broad and has many aspect:

- in several regions of the world there is a shortage of rigs to do the necessary exploration and extractions to provide the “new” oil to balance the depletion and increase in demand,

- in other regions, especially Europe and North America, there is a shortage of skilled workers,

- an increasing ageing of the work-force is another issue, with many to retire in the coming decade, and not enough young workers or students to replace them,

- there is the depletion-factor hitting in at many of the ageing fields,

- an interesting new factor is the growing recognition that overstating of reserves may become a problem in the future, because paper reserves cannot be extracted,

- some regions may not have what they were expected to have, such as the Arctic, where a recent USGS-report has estimated “considerably less total resources” than only a few years ago,

- quite some projects that were profitable during conception, turn out not so profitable anymore, due to strong increase of costs of material, workforce and time needed to commissioning,

- other projects were conceived or executed with not enough attention for environmental impact, to be caught up with this later, either resulting in delay, and or increase of costs or abandonment, or loss of influence,

- several of the main producers of the world see their export-levels endangered due to a rapid rise of the economy and subsequent increase in internal demand,

- the war in Iraq is now recognized by most of the American people to actually having decreased energy security, and other wars will certainly worsen this situation.


So where does this all lead to? Well, we may start to see that more money, or a high oil price, may not necessarily lead to more oil on the world-markets, as there are other factors determining the final outcome.

It is also said that the nationalisation-trend may be a danger for the energy-security. But is this really the case? The countries taking their resources back in their own hands may not be willing to maximize production according the expectations of “the Market”, but therefore their reserves may last longer and be part of the long-term energy-security, providing the oil that cannot be replaced by other energy-forms or –carriers.

And last-but-not-least, it could be “the Market” itself that is a danger to energy-security. Currently the “crisis-premium”, or to put it straight “speculators-premium” is said to be 34 dollar to the barrel, or a good 40(!)%, and prices are expected to reach the 100 or 200 dollar in the near future. This may have an interesting effect on the global situation, because at a certain moment the pain-barrier may be reached for the consumers as a result of the cumulative effects of this, and demand reduction may be the next danger of energy-security. But then it may apply to the security of demand.
And we may then see the next bust-cycle coming, of which the cumulative effects may be very considerable, seeing the current instability in the markets.

We may ask ourselves whether it is a good idea that the world-economy is so dependent on those few people squeezing the maximum out of “what the market gives”.


Enjoy the Update,

Alexander

Comments are always welcome at Alexander@gas-oil-power.com
 

 

 

Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

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