Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
'The Dialogue'
Do we actually need to worry?

The good news


Recently the oil world received some good news in the form of a very substantial discovery in the deep waters off Brazil. In water-depth of 2000 meters, under 3000 meters of sand and rock and 2000 meters of salt, a major discovery was made, expected to hold 7-8 billion barrels of oil, for starters. This is very good news for Brazil and it caused quite some euphoria, even up to the possibility of Brazil becoming an “oil super-power” and the announcement of the end of the peak oil discussion.

Especially the latter seems somewhat premature, although to a certain extent there may be a point in it.

There is still a lot of oil to be found apparently. The Arctic, East Siberia and the very deep seas are just a few of the places that may still contain very substantial amounts of oil. But as the first well in the Brazilian sub-salt discovery took 2 years and $ 150 mm to drill, and the second still six months and $ 60 mm, it will take a considerable amount of time before the expected and anticipated 1 million barrels per day will flow.
A vast infrastructure will be needed, several very big production platforms able to operate under such circumstances, much steel and many man-hours are just a few of the requirements; all in short supply. It may take another 10 years or more before a stable and substantial flow of oil can be expected from this discovery. And the story is quite similar for the Arctic and other frontier-areas.

The global oil market seems well-provided for at the moment, whilst speculation is rampant and is actually determining the price. The reserve production capacity is quite thin and the expected increase in demand, mainly from Asia, the Middle East and the Americas may outrun the increase in supply in the coming years.

The problems we face in the market have less to do with the expected amount of oil that may still be found, but much more with the depletion-factor in combination with increased demand that will cause a shortage of supply at a certain moment in the coming years.

Many projects, especially the big ones, announce delays and cost-overruns.
Planned projects will be subject to the excessive rise in steel prices, greater complexity and an ever more acute shortage in skilled workforce (and the subsequent rise in costs as a result).

So whilst it is still good news for Brazil to have found such a substantial amount of oil within its sovereignty, it may still be a bit early to see this as an end to the supply problems in the world.


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Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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