Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
'The Dialogue'
Do we actually need to worry?

Some early signs for 2008


It is sometimes amazing how fast things can change.

Looking at the last calls in 2007, the world was heading to an oil price of 100 dollars per barrel. Even only touching it shortly, and at the behest of a speculator wanting to be famous, it looked like it was only a matter of time before we would have a consistent $100 oil price, heading for the $150.

Things look very different now.

With the R-word (recession) appearing now more widespread, especially in relation to the world”s largest oil consumer, the pressure on the market is receding, and so is the price. And as the problems seem only to become bigger, it may be that, in line with the expectations of OPEC, the market will be oversupplied quite soon.

As the scare scenarios are losing their credibility and quite some “Hot Spots” are seemingly cooling off, we might also expect that the “speculators-premium” will be reduced. This might help to reduce the oil price.

Of course this is good news for many but it certainly does not say we have less of a problem if we extend our horizon into the future.

The world is still faced with extensive depletion of most of the sources world-wide and delays in new projects due to material- and skilled people-shortages. What is causing extra concern is that many of the oil-rich economies that have seen their economies growing due to the high oil prices, are now seeing a -- sometimes very strong -- growth in internal demand. The net result is that whilst the combined production of many of these countries is growing, the actual export is not. This is a phenomenon that is being seen in Latin America, Africa, Russia and the Middle East; all the main oil producing centres of the world.
So whilst we may expect an easing of the oil price to somewhat more comfortable levels in the short term, we do need to be prepared for a tightening of the market in the longer term.

2008 will be a very interesting and exciting year.

All the best wishes still from this place,


Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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