Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
'The Dialogue'
Do we actually need to worry?

Kenya: a new oil-frontier?


Whilst reading through the Update just before publication, I was stopped in my tracks by the news that Kenya is, or was, intending to issue 20 exploration-licenses this year. And suddenly it all made a different sense.

Just to re-cap: in Kenya currently an ethnic cleansing and separation is taking place, reducing the country to a gathering of tribes, of which most have all but destroyed each other before fleeing to their “ancestral” lands.

The unrest started with alleged rigged elections, but it only exploded after one of the future leaders of the country was “taken out” in a very professional way. (He was shot in the eye and in the heart in front of his house and nothing was taken. (NYT))

Some background-research then revealed that this person, who had grown up in the slums but had brought himself to wealth, was a figure of hope for many tribes. He also proved to have a heart for the poorer people and had, amongst other things, built a sport-stadium in the slums.

Kenya is one of the new oil frontiers in East Africa and is promising substantial reserves in an almost unexplored area. It is also just beginning its journey as an intending oil-producer.

Of course we do not know how the current legislation, or the reality of the contracts, look like, but Kenya is not yet in the league for nationalisations or the ramping up of the government-take. It also does not look like this is going to happen soon now, with a presidency based on alleged rigged elections and a government that rules an ethnically divided country.

But the person that was so professionally neutralized, was a potential ruler of a much more unified Kenya, and with his mind-set and background, it would have been natural for him to increase the influence of the government in the resource-industry and up the stake in the profits substantially above what is now normal in these regions. This would of course have been difficult to digest for the industry, already world-wide under pressure of increasingly assertive governments.

Naturally, there is no proof for these thoughts, and probably there will never be. But let us just wait a few years and see how much oil and gas will be found in and around Kenya and how this will help Kenya to improve its living-standards, or not.
What is certain is that the current situation will help the companies to dash out favourable deals that will be very good for shareholders value.


Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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