The good news
As always, whilst going through the collection of articles just before publishing, the question in the background is:
what is special, what is sticking out, what is a sign of a new trend?
This time there were several items that made an impression of some kind of change; a change in attitude; a change in
perception; a change in position.
The first one is in an apparent change in attitude in Nigeria, where the current government is starting, in a more serious way, to question and research where all the money the country should have earned actually has gone to. As the case is, between 1999 and 2007, an amount of 16 billion dollars has been pumped into the power-sector, with as a result that less power is available than before. This is now openly discussed and it seems that Nigeria is now making a serious start in cleaning up its act, as it is of course difficult to explain how a country can earn well over 400 billion dollars and nevertheless have the overwhelming majority of its population in abject poverty. We can only wish Nigeria all success in this process as it will be of great importance for its future when a greater transparency is being established.
A second “New” and change of attitude came in a signal from OPEC. In recent press-reports it has now
openly been said that the price-rises in oil have no relation to the actual supply-demand situation, as the market is
well supplied, and therefore gives no reason for the recent high oil-price. It has been said clearly that the current
oil-price-level has to do with speculation and the “mis-managed” US economy. Readers of this Editorial
know this has been said here for about two years now, but hearing it from the president of OPEC is a clear change in
attitude and trend. It does not help anymore that the president of the US calls it “a mistake” that not
more oil is pumped onto the market and it does not cause more than a shrugging of shoulders and a kind of
“clean up your own affairs and stop pointing fingers”.
With the long view in mind, the coming recession in the US, the winter being over and most storages well filled, and
with the current excessive amount of money looking for profit in the market, it would only cause instability if the
market would start to be oversupplied.
Another interesting trend is the speed with which China is responding to these times of climate-change and changing requirements of the future. It has become clear that, notwithstanding its independence of the Kyoto-protocol, there is a massive movement taking place to curb the effects of the fast development the country is in: No gasoline-powered car assembled in North America would meet China's current fuel-efficiency standard, not even vehicles produced under California's proposed environmental standards. At the same time old coal-mines and small coal power-plants, known for their heavy pollution, are being closed, massive reforestation-efforts are being undertaken and mitigating climate-change is now embedded in the economic planning of the coming years. With this and many other initiatives China is overtaking the West here as well in the speed with which it reacts on the changing requirements of the future.
So whilst the overall picture in “Energy-and-Climate”–land may not all too positive, there are some good signs that in the end “the truth will prevail”.
Alexander
P.s.: Responses are always welcome at alexander@gas-oil-power.com
