Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
'The Dialogue'
Do we actually need to worry?

Some Questions, no answers


In  considering the current issue, a host of questions came up, for which there seem to be no answers.

* The official figures for demand are heading towards 110 mm bpd for 2020 and even higher for 2030. But with the current 82 – 85 mm bpd supply, it seems that the supply-chain is maxed out for the coming years. How is this going to fit?

* We are being told that the current CO2-levels are nearing dangerous levels, nevertheless the emissions are expected to increase substantially in the coming years. How does that fit?

* And what about the CH4, the NOx and the many other emissions?

* The “solution” to prevent further CO2-emissions is said to be, the currently still experimental, Carbon Capture and Sequestration (or Storage) CCS. But a CCS-installation doubles the costs of a power plant and decreases its efficiency with 20%. So for every 4 power plants with CCS a fifth need to be built just to cover the losses due to the CCS. Is this viable or sustainable?

* The Ministers of the OPEC-countries are unanimous in their assessment that the market is well-supplied at the moment, and different sources substantiate this. The price-increases are almost all due to excessive speculation, is being added. However, in the land of the excessive speculation the fingers are pointing in other directions and the blame is put at the emerging economies, something which is not substantiated by the figures. How is such a difference in perception possible? Or is something else going on?

* In several articles the ways of the speculation and its conscious uncontrollability is addressed, and the US Congress is starting to talk to take action against the “London Route”, one of the main back-doors for the speculators. At the same time new ways are being created, “dark pools”, to make speculation even more uncontrollable, whilst the US Government is keeping with its standpoint that speculation is only a “minor factor”. What is actually going on?

* To keep up with projected demand, vast amounts of projects, be it onshore-installations, offshore-platforms, tankers, power-plants, pipelines, LNG-installations, -tankers and –regasification installations and so much more, will need to be build. But at the same time there are currently hardly any projects that are ready in time and within budget due to skilled labour constraint and rising costs. How is that going to work?

These are just a few questions that came up in reading the contradictory runes of the moment, whilst looking into the future. The picture becomes ever more quagmirish.

On the financial side, of the oil-price and oil-price-projections, what arises is the sense that a small group of people is driving this, creating the projections and the self-fulfilling prophecies.

Until it changes…. and the change may come sudden and hard.


P.s.: In Features, one of the interesting articles “How much water is needed to produce various types of energy?” gives a good overview on the water-usage for different energy-types.

Responses are always welcome at

Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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