Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Fly-by-wire
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
Media-power
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
Contango
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
Refinery-runs
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
Energy-security?
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
Ponder
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
Trust
Awakening
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
Fear??
'The Dialogue'
Consumption
Do we actually need to worry?
 

The Theatre

2008-07-20

It is already almost 3 weeks ago that the World Petroleum Congress took place in Madrid, but it nevertheless warrants some remarks about this massive and high level event.
It is a place where all the high level people come and one can meet the CEOs of most of the major IOCs and NOCs, as well as a host of ministers of oil & gas-relevant countries, producers and consumers, as well as the heads of the OPEC and the IEA.

It was interesting to see the shadow-boxing that took place, and sometimes it was plain street-fighting, such as what went on between the IEA and the OPEC, and their heads Mr. Nobuo Tanaka and Mr. Abdulla El-Badri.

The theatre started with several CEO”s of IOC”s categorically denying that speculation was an important factor in the oil-price, it was all about supply and demand, and some added that OPEC should do more and produce more. It was interesting to see that Mr. van der Veer from Shell later specified that it was not speculation that drove the price, it was more the fact that in the future there may be a shortage and therefore it was more down to the “emotions” of the traders. One may ask how Mr. van der Veer would define speculation, if what he describes is not speculation.

This was a theatre of denial of the importance of speculation. The question that arises is: why are all those people, that should know better, and probably do, so adamantly denying what is obvious for others?

Another part of the theatre play came from OPEC, that rightly said that they  were “annoyed” by the claims and basically showed the IEA that it could not count and accused it of “lacking transparency”, as they could simply prove their numbers and could also ask why all attention is going to OPEC, that only cover 40 % of the market and no-one is asking why the countries/parties responsible for the other 60% aren”t doing more.

It sometime feels like a pre-meditated play of blaming, ducking responsibilities and an increasingly politicised IEA. The play with scenario”s and projections and the  expected or projected growth-percentages; in the press-conference in which the IEA presented its projections till 2013 the question came up: is this to inform or to confuse? Even according to OPEC the IEA isn”t very clear in what it actually wants to say, be or portray.

Of course much more went on between 4200 delegates, 600 speakers, a host of CEOs and up to 35 ministers than just the above written. The theme of the WPC was: “A World in Transition: Delivering Energy for Sustainable Growth” and certainly a lot of talk has been going on about this, but when basics like figures about supply and demand are politicised and obvious developments like the rampant speculation are pushed outside of the talkable scope, one may wonder what relevance it will have and what it will bring in the reality of a World in transition. And: what kind of transition? Transition to what?

Stay alert,

All the best,

Alexander

 

Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

read more ...
« July 2019 »
July
MoTuWeThFrSaSu
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31

Register to announce Your Event

View All Events