Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
'The Dialogue'
Do we actually need to worry?



Over the last months there have been scores of announcements about refineries that are being planned to be built. When we look globally we see that new refineries are expected in several parts of Africa, Latin America, almost everywhere in the Middle East and quite a few in India, China, Vietnam and a few other countries of the regions.

And although the first plans are already being withdrawn, the question came up what this will mean for the refinery industry, and of course for the price of the products.

As we are seeing ever more clearly that the current global production of oil is at, or close to, its maximum we may wonder what will happen when very substantial refinery capacity will come on-stream in the coming decade, most of it near production-centres or in the emerging economies, whilst there will be not much more oil to process.

Will much of the oil that is now being refined in the “mature” economies just being drawn to the newer refineries because of economic reasons?
And what would this mean for the refineries in the mature economies?

Will there be just not enough oil to process and therefore prices will go up?

Or will there be excess capacity world-wide and will prices go down?

Or will the main part of the limited amount of the refined products be used up in the emerging economies and therefore not much will be left for the mature economies?  And would this mean rising prices? Or another play for the speculators?

Fact is that the expected demand for oil in official statements is far above expected supply. But these are official statements, that in most cases have not yet included the economic downturn that is taking hold of the biggest user of oil & oil-products on the planet, the USA, with very substantial decline in imports. The decline in imports of the USA can currently cover the growth in usage and imports of the emerging economies several times over.

Whilst already for quite some time the call was that there was no shortage and that prices were due to speculators playing in the field, reality is now also reaching these levels and prices are going down.

But what will happen in the longer run, when real shortage starts to make itself known, and what will be the effects on the refineries that currently are being planned and built, may be difficult to envision.

But it might be that we urgently need to speed up the evolution of electric mobility, so we may be able to change from “fill em up” to “charge em up”.

Looking forward,


Responses are always welcome at


Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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