Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Fly-by-wire
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
Media-power
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
Contango
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
Refinery-runs
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
Energy-security?
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
Ponder
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
Trust
Awakening
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
Fear??
'The Dialogue'
Consumption
Do we actually need to worry?
 

Meeting reality

2008-09-23

Whilst Wall Street is in shambles, and the Central Asia pipeline projections have met a brick wall of reality, there seems to be an eerie silence around the oil price and the attached global developments.

The projections for demand will need to be reviewed, as we see that demand-destruction in the US is now approaching the 8 – 10 percent on year-basis, demand-growth in China is slowing down and several high-flying mega, and partly megalomaniac, projects in the Middle East are being caught up by the reality of either the banking-crisis or unrealistic reserve and supply expectations.

The oilsands in Canada are in the books for several millions of barrels per day in the coming decades, but have already reached their limit due to the pollution they are causing and most LNG-projects are severely delayed and in no way living up to their promise or projection.

When we add to this the changing balances in the refinery industry that are on its way, due to a large amount of refineries being constructed and planned, but  no incremental supply either expected or possible, the picture becomes opaque.

The oil price is now hovering around the 100 dollar, which seems to be the best balance at the moment between what is needed and what is possible, and whilst the prices at the pump seem not to have realised yet that the fundamentals have changed, the people on the street hope this will happen soon.

The world seems to approach unstable times, and in many ways will need to concentrate on its fundamentals. We can only hope that in general the gap between showed reality and fundamental reality may not be as big as with the banks and trading-houses that recently have met a more fundamental reality. In many cases the banks were working with a self-created bubble that was up to 40 times their fundamental, real, capital. In other words there was only 2,5 % cover in those cases. And although maybe not so far stretched out, we may wonder how things stand in many other branches.

What would happen, to the world, and to the oil price, if we are meeting reality and are forced back to fundamentals? 

If fundamentals are only a few percent of what is now displayed as reality, the world may find itself in a very different place in only a few years time, as we will not only be brought back to fundamentals, but also will start to meet the consequences of our, mainly the West”s, outrageous behaviour, in the form of climate-change, water-shortage and many other “collateral damage”.

Stay real,

Alexander

Responses are always welcome at alexander@gas-oil-power.com

 

Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

read more ...
« September 2019 »
September
MoTuWeThFrSaSu
1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
30

Register to announce Your Event

View All Events