Alexander's Commentary
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A message of hope?
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Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
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A fresh overview
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Fear??
'The Dialogue'
Consumption
Do we actually need to worry?
 

Driving the markets II

2008-10-28

Whilst we see the oil-price going down ever further, touching on 60 dollars now and on its way to realms we thought impossible only half a year ago, it is interesting to see who is NOT talking these days. When the price was driven up, the talk of all the pundits was that oil could reach 200 or more dollar in no time, thereby creating a further movement upwards. Now that the price is going down almost faster than it has gone up, we hear very little from those pundits where it could end up.

Looking at the current Update, which covers the news of the last month, when oil was just touching the 100 dollar, ministers from producer-countries were saying that for a healthy market, in the current (still) high price environment for material and man-power, a price between 80 and 100 dollar was imperative to not threaten a whole collection of projects that are needed to secure the supply of the future.
But “the market was un-impressed”, even by the announcement of OPEC to cut production, as could be read in many news-papers. Just as it was “un-impressed” this summer by the announcements of OPEC-dignitaries that the market was well-supplied. It bears the question: who/what is “the market”?

If we then broaden the view and see that, whilst in times of crisis security is mostly sought in gold and silver, driving up the price, currently the price of gold and silver is low, even when physical availability is limited. Several analysts called it “irrational”, nevertheless it is the case.

If we then also look at the list of countries that are suddenly in trouble because they have enjoyed “investors-appetite” and saw billions of easy (and virtual) money injected in their economy, which is now suddenly withdrawn, we see amongst them a collection of Eastern European countries, that are now grappling to survive and are forced into near-bankruptcy and into the hands of the international financial institutes. These are the same institutions that wrecked havoc amongst so many countries by the strict rules they enforced on the economies they are “helping out” but apparently had no way of foreseeing the current mess and it”s causes, or did not want to say anything, or were selectively blind.

When we then see that against any logic almost the only currency that is profiting from the mess is the dollar, we come to ask: is this all a coincidence?
Or does it add up to something most people do not even dare to think: that the whole thing is being directed. That it is all a coordinated action to “re-arrange” the world order: putting countries like Russia, Venezuela, Iran and other “unfriendly” producer-nations in trouble by preventing further development due to lack of resources; buying up some countries and economies that are deemed strategically important by pulling out the funds and making them default so they can be controlled or bought up cheaply; stopping a host of refinery- and other mega projects that would have tilted the balance towards the East and towards countries that insist on sovereignty on their resources; all seemingly to make sure that when it is all over, the last (or lost?) empire of the current crony klepto-gerontocratie is still standing and “calling the shots”?
That billions of people will have suffered, lost all savings, their jobs, houses and securities for the future, seems to be as relevant as the “collateral damage” of the unnecessary wars that were started with similar purposes.

Another side-effect of the enforced dive in the oil-price is that many projects are quickly becoming unviable: deep-water, arctic, oil-sands, shale-oil, coal-to-liquid, but also many refinery- and petrochemical projects that had been announced over the last year or so.
All these projects need a high oil-price to be able to survive, or even be started. And whilst this may have a positive effect in the sense that many of these projects would not have been necessary in the first place, or are very detrimental for the global climate, it will also cause that when in a few years time global production is going down due to depletion (2010-12), many projects that would have started now and would have been ready by then, will not be available.
This will cause a situation in which the already expected gap between supply and demand that will occur then will be much greater than necessary. And this will drive up the oil-price again, the bonus of which will be enjoyed by the same people that now make sure that the price goes down as far as possible, because “the market is un-impressed”.

Is this the world we want to live in? Or is it time really for some “regime-change”?

Stay intact,

Alexander

Responses are always welcome at alexander@gas-oil-power.com

Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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