Leaping to the future
These are uncertain times, with many contradicting signals, and looking forward becomes more a matter of fuzzy logic than extrapolating the times that have been.
Some pundits tell that the financial crisis could be over in about 2 years, after which we will see growth again.
But then the figures tell that the collective hidden debts that have been accumulated over the last decade have
reached a magnitude that the world will never be able to even out, and so we are basically bankrupt. The bubble has
burst and everything is returning to its fundamentals.
And as, for example, the most banks have a core capital-coverage of somewhere between 5 and 10 %, we could be in for
some shrinkage.
This will of course, have substantial influence on future oil demand, which determines the price. And when everything
crumbles, demand this year may be going down much further than the now expected 1-1,5 mm bpd from last year”s
average of just under 86 mm bpd. And this will decrease the need for new projects and keep the price down until
depletion starts to be felt and the need for new projects becomes apparent.
Where or when this may be, is written in the stars.
What seems certain is that many high-cost projects and projects that need a high oil-price will end up in the fridge for (quite) some time.
But there is more: Everything is directed to re-institute GROWTH again; that is the ultimate goal.
But is this wise and realistic?
It is already becoming clear that climate-change is getting much worse than even the darkest scenario”s and no-one has any idea where it will end. Vast amounts of methane and other gasses are stored in the now still mostly arctic landscapes, waiting to get released soon, as temperatures are rising well above the expected. And these emissions will contribute themselves to further change and destabilisation of the climate.
And notwithstanding all the talking and financial schemes; the emissions are still rising in most places in the world.
The oceans are becoming acid due to too much CO2 and other sour emissions and the life-cycles in there, when not already robbed out, are seeing their environment fundamentally changed and becoming unfit to live.
Drinkable water is becoming scarce, food is expected to become less available and diseases are expected to spread. For a large part this is due to the side-effects of the growth-based economy of the “Western World”, now so eagerly copied by many others.
Isn”t it time to realise that “change” means something else than “more of the same, just a
bit different”? Isn”t it time to start to ask some fundamental questions of where we are going and
whether this is the right way?
Seen from afar, the way the world is going now looks like one road to fundamental disaster: robbed, bankrupt and with
a “broken” climate.
Looking to re-institute “what was” with “Growth” seems to be utter folly.
What are the alternatives?
Alexander
