Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Fly-by-wire
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
Media-power
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
Contango
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
Refinery-runs
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
Energy-security?
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
Ponder
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
Trust
Awakening
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
Fear??
'The Dialogue'
Consumption
Do we actually need to worry?
 

Leaping to the future

2009-03-05

These are uncertain times, with many contradicting signals, and looking forward becomes more a matter of fuzzy logic than extrapolating the times that have been.

Some pundits tell that the financial crisis could be over in about 2 years, after which we will see growth again.

But then the figures tell that the collective hidden debts that have been accumulated over the last decade have reached a magnitude that the world will never be able to even out, and so we are basically bankrupt. The bubble has burst and everything is returning to its fundamentals.
And as, for example, the most banks have a core capital-coverage of somewhere between 5 and 10 %, we could be in for some shrinkage.

This will of course, have substantial influence on future oil demand, which determines the price. And when everything crumbles, demand this year may be going down much further than the now expected 1-1,5 mm bpd from last year”s average of just under 86 mm bpd. And this will decrease the need for new projects and keep the price down until depletion starts to be felt and the need for new projects becomes apparent.
Where or when this may be, is written in the stars.

What seems certain is that many high-cost projects and projects that need a high oil-price will end up in the fridge for (quite) some time.

But there is more: Everything is directed to re-institute GROWTH again; that is the ultimate goal.

But is this wise and realistic?

It is already becoming clear that climate-change is getting much worse than even the darkest scenario”s and no-one has any idea where it will end. Vast amounts of methane and other gasses are stored in the now still mostly arctic landscapes, waiting to get released soon, as temperatures are rising well above the expected. And these emissions will contribute themselves to further change and destabilisation of the climate.

And notwithstanding all the talking and financial schemes; the emissions are still rising in most places in the world.

The oceans are becoming acid due to too much CO2 and other sour emissions and the life-cycles in there, when not already robbed out, are seeing their environment fundamentally changed and becoming unfit to live.

Drinkable water is becoming scarce, food is expected to become less available and diseases are expected to spread. For a large part this is due to the side-effects of the growth-based economy of the “Western World”, now so eagerly copied by many others.

Isn”t it time to realise that “change” means something else than “more of the same, just a bit different”? Isn”t it time to start to ask some fundamental questions of where we are going and whether this is the right way?
Seen from afar, the way the world is going now looks like one road to fundamental disaster: robbed, bankrupt and with a “broken” climate.

Looking to re-institute “what was” with “Growth” seems to be utter folly.

What are the alternatives?

Alexander

Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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