Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Fly-by-wire
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
Media-power
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
Contango
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
Refinery-runs
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
Energy-security?
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
Ponder
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
Trust
Awakening
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
Fear??
'The Dialogue'
Consumption
Do we actually need to worry?
 

Two minds

2009-05-13

There are currently two schools when considering the oil-price and its future. One group says that the current oil-price is too high, seeing the glut in the market, and the current oversupply will continue due to the extended economic crisis that is on its way. This group also expects that the economic crisis is just starting and will overwhelm us later this year, causing a further reduction of energy-usage.

The other grouping is already talking about the end of the economic crisis and is explaining the current rise in the oil-price with “the hope that the economy will rebound soon and that more oil will be needed then”.

Independent of who is right on the economy, although a quick recovery seems unrealistic in the light of the vast, still to be uncovered losses, a closer look at the reasons given for the oil-price increase brings the question: have we learned anything from the mess that was created?

It seems everything is just starting all over again: all the right words that on closer look do not mean anything other than that some people are trying to talk up the market, irrespective of reality.

This gets another dimension when we learn that, whilst over the last years there was a lot of media-attention for the earnings of the OAPEC-countries due to the high oil-price, a calculation learns us that the profits of the major oil companies were almost 5 times as high as the earnings of the oil-producing countries: $5.5 trillion dollar against $1.2 trillion (2002-2006). The earnings on taxes in the industrialised countries were double the profits of the oil-producers ($2.3 tn versus $1.2 tn). (see article in Features).
This may also explain why some countries were so eerily quiet on the obvious signs of price-driving.

When we add to this that in the uncovering of the financial juggling of some of the mega-institutions in the US and UK, it came to the surface that, unknown to most, even shareholders, trillions had been used for currency- and commodity speculation, followed by a very quiet and reluctant admission that speculation may have played a larger role in the price-hike than generally admitted, we can see the first attempts to start all over again.

When we then add the current “restrain” in investment in new projects, notwithstanding the warnings from producer-countries that this may cause shortages in the medium-term, and the subsequent to-be-expected price-hikes due to shortage, we may even be tempted to think that some people are driving their own agenda with the oil-price and the world-economy.

It has been very quiet for some time in the media on the oil-front. This was partly because less contracts were dashed out, but a much greater role played the strong reduction in articles from “analysts” and “consultants” and “experts” that were all seeing the price of oil going from the $50 to $100, than $ 200 or more. All this talk became suddenly irrelevant in the face of the financial crisis and the obvious oil-glut.

But now, whilst over 100 million barrel of oil is floating in storage on the seas, we see the oil-price rising because some people “hope that the economy will improve and that then more oil will be needed”.

After the “regime-change” in the US, which seems good for the world, it is time to look at those who really are pulling the strings. We may be surprised, and shocked, at what we would find.

Stay awake!

Alexander


Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

read more ...
« September 2019 »
September
MoTuWeThFrSaSu
1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
30

Register to announce Your Event

View All Events