Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Fly-by-wire
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
Media-power
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
Contango
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
Refinery-runs
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
Energy-security?
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
Ponder
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
Trust
Awakening
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
Fear??
'The Dialogue'
Consumption
Do we actually need to worry?
 

All over again? The difference between perception and reality.

2009-06-18

We are in a strange situation again, in oil-land: whilst 100-150 million barrel is floating in storage and demand is going down in almost all corners of the planet, the price has almost doubled over the last 2-3- months. The difference this time (with last year) is that the media-circus is relatively quiet this time. This is understandable as there is no case to be made for higher prices and one can wonder what it all says.

Whilst there are good sides to the higher price, and not only for the oil-producing countries (as the IOC”s have been calculated to earn about 5 times more from the oil than the producing countries), the way it is happening, and especially that which is not happening, leaves a lot of questions.

As there is no fundamental reason for the increase, based on supply and demand, one can ask: “What is actually driving the price?”, and how is it possible that a complete disconnection between “market-principles” (supply/demand) and the actual price has occurred, and who or what is driving this, and why? 
One wonders what the grand-scale return of the Hedgefunds & Co to the market has to do with it.

Whilst in the run-up to last year”s peak oil-price there were a lot of pundits talking the price ever higher in their self-fulfilling prophecies, this time it is very quiet. Why? What is not being said?

Whilst it could be partly the result of a “Grand Deal” between “the Producers” and “the Market”, the quietness in the press is nudging for further questioning.

As several times before in this Column, the complicity of the Media-Machinery is the question here, as they have turned out to be an important medium for market-manipulation and, even more important “perception-manipulation” (meaning that we are made to believe something whilst actually something else is the case).

An example of this is, that in very, very few articles about the war in Afghanistan, and certainly not the in controlled main-stream media, the TAPI-pipeline is mentioned as an important factor in this. Or that an important reason for the surge in deadly activity in Pakistan seems to be the “freeing” of very resource-rich Balochistan and the breaking up of Pakistan in 3 regions, thwarting the plans of the Chinese to lay a pipeline from China to the Pakistan coast to shorten the route the oil needs to go to reach China and thereby increase its energy-security. That millions of people are being displaced or killed, seems to be of little interest, or does not want to be mentioned.

And to make sure the war-theatre continues, the first announcements turn up that the “terrorists” are now leaving Pakistan and go the Yemen or Somalia, both strategically important places with (potentially) substantial energy-reserves. And suddenly some European tourists are being kidnapped in Yemen (not unusual in itself) but this time they are brutally killed, which makes of course no sense when you want to have a leverage as kidnapper, but does make sense in a run-up to point out a country to the world-opinion as a dangerous place where terrorists gather, offering it up for “liberation” of pacification.

We are generally kept in the dark about such “covert operations”, “black-ops” or “psy-ops” as the protests of the remaining decent people may turn out to be devastating, needing to increase even more the control of the masses for “home-land-security”.

What all this has to do with the oil-price? We will see. But what is clear is that the “working together” of “Media”, “Market” and “Military” is turning out to a Might that in its influence is similar to what is happening to the oil-price: there is a huge difference between what is being presented and what really is happening. And that is a very dangerous development.

Be aware of what you read and what you believe,

Alexander

Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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