Alexander's Commentary
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Where is this going?
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Little miracles, big wonders
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Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
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Reality and Hope
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What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
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All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
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Driving the markets
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Silence for the storm?
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The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
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Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
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Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
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Fraud alert - bogus job ads
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Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
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Awakening
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No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
Fear??
'The Dialogue'
Consumption
Do we actually need to worry?
 

P.P.P. versus Need

2009-10-16

In this extensive and dense update, with quite some geo-political background in the News & Trends-section, there are scant indications for the directions of the changes occurring at the moment.

There is the confusion (created) around the peak oil issue, with experts saying that the new finds prove there is still a lot to be discovered, so we need not worry, and others saying that the decrease in investment in exploration and development due to the economic crisis is the real reason for a possible imminent peak in production. So if we invest more, we will find more, and also need not worry.

Reality shows that it is probably a bit different: Current discoveries do add to the known reserve-pool on hydrocarbons but have only little effect on the overall global reserve-base as well as on the scale of production, and probably just mitigate for depletion.

And of course a lack of investment in exploration is not helping to find new pools, as these apparently are still to be found.
But the economic crisis does help, in that, globally, the usage of hydrocarbons is reduced, so the problem of peak-production may be delayed, depending upon the effects of the economic crisis in several energy-intensive regions.

The relatively stability of the oil-price helps again to create some stable background on which economies can try to recover. However, whether this will be enough to see an increase in demand could very well be doubted.

But there is more; there is a lot of talk that the economies are expected to grow again next year and that the crisis is not as deep as thought and that energy-consumption will grow again next year, mainly on growth of China and India.
 
But when we see the unemployment- and poverty-increase in the US, with accompanying tent-cities and all, the chances for an improvement of the export of consumer-goods from China to the US are slim and the situation is only slightly better in relation to the EU.

And here an interesting bifurcation is to be seen. To “fight” the economic crisis, the US has created trillions of dollars to save the banks who created the problems, and now again are making obscene profits and paying grotesque boni, whilst China has taken another route.

With the excess dollars they have gathered, China”s companies are buying energy and energy- and commodity-assets, often at the cheap at the moment, to ensure the energy for the future, whilst at the same time “at home” substantial sums are being invested in infrastructure and in-house energy- and renewable energy-sources, all aimed at increasing development and decreasing energy-usage per economic unit, pollution and dependence.

When then becomes known that some serious negotiations have started between a group of oil-producing and -consuming countries, to create a more stable and multi-lateral payment-system for the oil, instead of the dollar, we see another part of the unravelling taking place.

When the dollar will cease to be the main oil-currency, it will further erode in value, which might cause a further decline in the trust in the economic stability of the US. Considering the decline in credit-worthiness in combination with the overstretch of up to 1000 foreign military bases all over the globe, several wars going and more in preparation, we may get a different view on the meaning of “wars of necessity”. Wars have been used to bring economies together again before. Now that unemployment is feeding the armies again, the options are open. ... and much profit is to be made.

What this is all pointing to is that we can see an empire in decline and an influence coming.
 
A system in decline built around 3 P”s: Power, Profit,  Personality (or Politics) that ever more seems like a falling tower of self-indulgence, “high” on its own grandness, adrenalin and other substances, being caught up by  a changing world that is turning away from the paradigms that has brought wealth to some but suffering to many.

The Influence coming seems more to be looking at the long-term needs; multi-lateral agreements, stability, development, reducing dependence and the pollution-footprint, whilst money can and must be made on the way.
It is the focus that makes the difference.

It is as with the epoch-change going on at the moment: whilst the old epoch slowly fades, the coming epoch is slowly strengthening and its influence spreading. As with the tides, the change often goes with strong (under-)currents and it is hoped we can stay upright in an increasingly instable state of affairs.

Stay informed.

Alexander

 

Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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