Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Fly-by-wire
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
Media-power
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
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Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
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The long view
Leaping to the future
Contango
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
Refinery-runs
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
Energy-security?
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
Ponder
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
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Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
Trust
Awakening
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
Fear??
'The Dialogue'
Consumption
Do we actually need to worry?
 

Reality and Hope

2010-01-07

In these early days of the new decade it is attractive to try to look forward into what may be coming or what may be awaiting us the coming years and this decade.

Focussing around energy and the current situation the question comes up: will there be enough?

Many of the pundits and experts are proclaiming that soon growth will be again upon us and that oil- and energy-demand will rise again and that all will be well. But is this realistic?

Starting with the biggest energy-user on the planet, the USA, it seems, reading more than just the controlled mainstream-media, that the USA is fast on its way to a thorough collapse and subsequent reduction of energy-usage, which may fall to 60 % of its highest point in the coming years.

Looking at the second biggest energy-user on the planet, which uses currently less than half of nr 1 with about 4 times the amount of people, China, we learn that the economic and energy-usage growth of the last years was for more than 50 % due to the export to Western nations, especially USA, which is now shrinking rapidly. This means that the growth will reduce strongly and that the expected growth, as postulated by the experts, may not be as strong as envisioned by many. The consequence of this may be that the revival of the world-economy may take more time.

Looking at other high-energy-users, we see that Europe is still contracting and is awaiting further ripple-on-effects of the global banking fraud and notwithstanding positive expectations energy-demand growth seems far away here as well.
Also the Middle East is seeing the “limits to growth”, which translates in many projects being delayed, whilst others may turn out “too big – too late”.

So without making a grand tour around the globe, my reading is that for the coming year we might very well continue to see a glut in oil, gas and LNG all together, as energy-demand globally is on retreat.

If we then look beyond this year and more into the mid- and longer term within this decade, I see no reason to believe that substantial growth in either energy-demand or the global economy will take place within the coming 2 – 3 years, no matter what the oil-price will tell.

This may not be as dramatic as it sounds, and may have its good sides, as much exploration is being “capped” and the apparent multiple new finds are not enough to balance out the ever ongoing depletion. This could indicate relative price-stability, would it not be for the rampant speculation and market- (and media-) manipulation.

Looking at other signals we may also see conflict or war in preparation, as the activity in Yemen and the pathetic shoe-bomber 2 –attempt, who conveniently comes from Nigeria (where the next theatre is waiting in the Gulf of Guinea) and conveniently is saying he was trained by some grouping in Yemen, shows. War and terror are ever more being used as state-media to make sure the dollar keeps rolling and that energy-lanes can be controlled. What the effects of these conflicts and possible wars will be on the world is very hard to foresee, as also the schemes behind these “arisings” is becoming more known and hopefully one day will back-fire.

On another note, we can see that the effects of the changing and destabilising of the climate is becoming known and may start to be seen on a grander scale the coming years, which may have further deteriorating effects on quite a few economies.

And then there is the effects that may occur at the end of 2012, which are much hyped and misused, but is nothing else than a special, and probably very potent, astronomical configuration. Whether this will be the end of the world is doubtful, although it may be used by some to try to create world-wide havoc in their attempts to create a new world order. What it may mean is that things may start to change in a different way than currently envisaged, and whether this will be good for the currently artificial life-style with its large-scale destruction and devastation, is questionable.

Looking beyond that time, other than in an extrapolatory fashion, which has already proven useless the last years, is very hard due to the many unknown factors.

Can we then be optimistic and happily look forward to this coming decade? Well, that depends on your intentions in life, your values and what you deem important. It is not so much what happens to you, but how you deal with it (in yourself). And whilst the economic situation may deteriorate for many, there will also be a rising spirit and a growing consciousness about the reality of the human and how it is actually meant to be.

All the best for this coming year,

Alexander

 

Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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