Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Fly-by-wire
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
Media-power
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
Contango
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
Refinery-runs
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
Energy-security?
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
Ponder
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
Trust
Awakening
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
Fear??
'The Dialogue'
Consumption
Do we actually need to worry?
 

Signs of the future?

2010-02-08

It is amazing to see and feel how time seems to pass by ever faster. And how more and more signals are turning up that give indication to the changes we can expect, although not all is clear what these will be.
Let”s start far away from home: After changes on the planet Venus, the appearance of a second and then a third “Red Spot” on Jupiter, it has now also become known that Pluto has been changing colour the last years, due to large changes within its atmosphere.
 
So, whilst climate-change on Earth has certainly a large human-induced factor, we may conclude that this is probably not the only thing at play. How the extra-terrestrial influences play their part is of course impossible to know, nor how much of the current earthly climate-change is actually the result of these outside influences.

Whilst this also means that the human influence in the whole cannot be readily quantified, it is clear that the yearly burning of 30 billion barrels of oil, 3 trillion cubic meter of natural gas, almost 6 billion tons of coal, as well as the flaring and venting of 2 trillion cubic meter of gas is not something that can be called “Sustainable Practice”, nor can it be expected to stay without effect.

And whilst the human race is burning all this, and using oxygen for it, it is at the same time cutting its very source of this oxygen in an incredible speed of several hectares per minute, a lot of this to either create “green biofuels” or grow “burgers”. We are actually in the process of choking ourselves! The oxygen-levels in many areas have already gone down from the natural 18 % to 15 % and in some mega-cities down to 11 %. What this does to the human system, and especially the brain, one can easily imagine. But then: masses of people that are flooded with information and have no oxygen to think for themselves are easily manipulated.

The global oil and gas developments are currently strongly influenced by the economic state of affairs and the picture here is quite interesting. Whilst some pundits are telling that the crisis is over and that energy-demand will rise later this year or next year, a thorough evaluation of the underlying substantia will tell us that this may not be the case.
 
In Europe, several countries are starting to come into trouble due to a combination of too much exposure to the global banking-fraud and unserious budget-management. After Greece, Portugal is being called upon to balance their budget more, and soon probably Spain and possibly Italy might follow. Although this will not lead to the collapse of the Euro, nor of the Euro-zone, it will have substantial repercussions on the economy as a whole. This may strengthen the trend of energy-demand reduction.

In Asia, where the great hope for increase in energy-demand is lodged, we see growing economies, but a large part due to government stimuli and, especially in China, large amounts of speculative “hot” money entering, giving rise to the first warnings for “bubbles”, and their devastating after-effects. The energy-usage in both India and China is rising, but indigenous production and strong growth of solar, wind, hydro and coal, may limit the effects on the global oil and gas market. Growth in demand will be apparent from Asia, but it might not be enough to compensate for reduction elsewhere.

With the Nr.1  in energy-usage, the USA, with 19 mm bpd still more than double the amount of Nr.2 China,  the situation for the mid-term is very different. We can see two, slightly diverging, lines of development.
The latest statistics showed that the economy was growing with 5.7 % in the third quarter of last year and the big banks, especially those that caused the crisis, are raking in billions again. With at least 46% of the GDP being “Financial Services”, the growth-figures may be explained by the profits of the banks, as the signals from the rest of the economy are not that rosy.
 
Whilst less jobs as expected being created, more people getting jobless, and even more people being forced out of their houses and falling off the welfare-system, and with close to 50 million people dependent on food-stamps, meaning close to 1 in 6 of the entire population, it seems unlikely that energy-demand will rise in the coming years.
With large-scale poverty arising and more guns around than people in the country, and a growing consciousness of the people that the country is being taken over by business-interest that have not as their first priority the welfare of the people of the country, we may see an explosive situation coming nearby.
 
And apart from a strong rise in energy-demand from the military, which is nowhere turning up in the statistics, we can only expect a further reduction in energy-usage by the country as a whole.

Under the surface the world is changing faster than can easily be seen. Many countries are starting partnerships which make them less connected to and less dependent from the current economic model as determined by “The West”, and the influence of the dollar is declining, as is the influence of the “West” as a whole, notwithstanding the “Wrah-Wrah” on issues like Iran or Afghanistan or Pakistan, or the active pursuit of terror as an instrument of control.

With overproduction in oil, gas and LNG, and storage, floating or not, overflowing and demand going down, prices may be going further down, although it might be good for the long-term if they stayed  at a reasonable, or “comfortable” level, so that search and discovery will keep pace, as new reserves will be needed to compensate natural decline.

Keep and open mind,

Alexander

Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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