Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Fly-by-wire
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
Media-power
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
Contango
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
Refinery-runs
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
Energy-security?
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
Ponder
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
Trust
Awakening
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
Fear??
'The Dialogue'
Consumption
Do we actually need to worry?
 

Economy; What Economy?

2010-04-15

Recently the head of the IEA commented that "Demand numbers have not been as strong as the macro economists say the economic recovery has been." In other words, the data on the economic recovery have not translated in a growth in energy/oil-demand.

How is this possible? In combining recent data of the (still) biggest economy of the world it becomes clear that whilst the economy in the first quarter has been growing substantially, according to the data presented in the world-press, diesel/heating-oil demand saw a very substantial decline. As the heating oil and the diesel are mainly used for home-heating and trucking, demand-data on these are good indicators for the health of the people- and goods-economy. When heating oil demand goes down substantially against the previous year, it means that, even whilst having a severe winter, people are heating less and less people are heating. As the population has not shrunk dramatically, it can only be a sign of economic strain in its various aspects: many people losing their homes and houses and those able to stay are turning the heating a few degrees down.

Similar with the diesel-demand: less trucking means fewer goods that need transporting, meaning less consumption and less production; all signs of an economy that is shrinking.

But what about the data? How is it possible that an economy grows but energy-demand goes down? Very simple: If, as is the case in the US, 46 % (or more) of the GDP is Financial Services”, the currently again obscene profits of the banks and hedgefunds and all other financial institutions are part of “the Economy” and are taken into the picture, providing for flashy economic growth-data. But as reality shows: hedgefund-managers or investmentbankers with already a few hundred million do not consume more or produce more when they “earn” another few hundred million.

Is the economic revival that is being spoken and written about real? Well, it depends where you are looking and how you are looking.
In Europe, especially Germany, there seems to be a very careful revival of the industry and export, with much of the demand coming from the Far East where the economies are growing substantially. But Europe is still searching a way out of the debt-situation which it hid, helped by some of the biggest banks in the world, and that is now being made worse by the media- and speculative campaigns to weaken the Euro and the European integrity.

Whilst Africa can show for very positive growth figures it needs to be kept in mind that going from very little to a bit more, creates beautiful growth-percentages, but that the filtering through to the larger population and the building of a self-sustaining economy is the real need for future stability.

China, which is often mentioned as the new motor of the world-economy, is indeed growing with 8 – 10 %, but at the same time it needs to be seen that the situation sees dramatic changes, as recently China became a net-importer of goods (it is already for almost 50 % for its oil) and that much growth is due to “hot money” and internal stimuli, both to be reigned in in the near future.

We are in a very strange situation: whilst there is oil in abundance and growth is lagging behind the expectations, the oil-price keeps rising.
Whilst demand for refinery-products is going down and quite a few majors are sizing down or selling refinery-operations, and there is a glut of products floating on the world-seas, we see prices of heating ol/diesel and gasoline rising.

This means that there is ever more a complete de-coupling of supply-and-demand-principles and a movement to “What the market gives”. This means that the people determining the oil-price are just squeezing everyone as far as they can go. And as we all need to drive and heat our homes, we have no choice but to comply to this devious game of stealing from the masses and heaping it on the few.

Going one step further, this says that the financial industry has completely lost grounding and is playing with people and whole countries at will, at profit and at politics, with no-one being held responsible for the results of their handling. That this creates a dangerous situation for the future may be clear.

The crisis may not yet be over: the mortgage-defaulting is rising, not only in the US; the Office-building-mortgage-bubble is expected to burst or be deflated strongly sooner rather than later, with possibly far-reaching consequences for the many banks and funds all over the world that invested heavily in this previous gold-mine, and the debt-situation of quite a few countries may bring them into trouble re-financing their debts, which will only be possible on much higher interest and therefore bring more debt to the country and less money to the people (but more money to the banks).
 
How long this detracted situation may still go on is anyone”s guess.

We better start preparing for some serious changes.

Looking forward,

Alexander


 

Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

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