Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Fly-by-wire
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
Media-power
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
Contango
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
Refinery-runs
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
Energy-security?
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
Ponder
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
Trust
Awakening
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
Fear??
'The Dialogue'
Consumption
Do we actually need to worry?
 

Going on ...

2010-06-02

With yet another Update we continue unabated with providing an overview of the global oil & gas developments.
 
Apart from the BP-disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, it is relatively silent at the moment and it seems as if the industry is waiting to see what direction other developments will take.
 
The worldwide overproduction is finally resulting in some price-reduction, although this cannot really be noticed on the streets here in Europe, where refinery-products still are excessively priced, seen the glut in products and the less-than-expected increase in demand.

There are some very interesting developments currently at play that are less well-know but give some indication to what can be expected in the future.
Several articles in this issue deal with the tales of USAFRICOM, the US military build-up in Africa that is said to be needed to protect Africa from terrorism, but which, as in many places elsewhere, seems to only increase terrorism. Of course, the countries that find themselves now “harbouring terrorist” will be “helped” and will need to spend an increasing amount of their money on weapons and “instructors”. Whether this will be in the interest of these countries will need to be seen, but they may not have much choice.

This military build-up gets an added ingredient if we read that some in the EIA are expecting physical shortage in the market as from 2015, if not more is invested. As currently quite some of the major companies spend several times as much on share-buy-backs as on exploration, we may indeed see that exploration will not bring anymore as much as it used to do.
 
As we then read that especially in Africa, in the East as well as in the West, several very promising provinces have been found, we may be looking at attempts to “ensure free shipping-lanes” for the energy to support the economy (and military) of the US, now that neither of the operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have been very successful in securing much oil or gas for the world-market.
 
We may remember that when the Iraq-war was started the great promoters of the war were loudly speaking about producing 6 to 12 mm bpd from the country within a few years (with which then the war could finance itself). Reality is that currently about 1.8 mm bpd is exported from Iraq, and it doesn”t look like this is going to grow substantially in the coming time.

If we then read that, whilst the US is basically bankrupt, and an ever larger part of its population is living from food-stamps, in tents or in squatted houses, it has again raised it military budget very substantially to close to 700 billion dollar, (about 7 times the budget of China and well over 50 % of all military spending world-wide), and that is without counting the substantial hidden income from the opium-trade from Afghanistan, we may actually get a strange feeling that something is at play of which we may not see the full picture.
 
“Iran” seems to be off the immediate planning-board for the moment, as it may have become clear it might not work out as easy as originally thought, and Russia and China are becoming closer, in response to the schemes on the global chess-board, including another false-flag operation with North-Korea to ensure “presence” in the Pacific and the Sea of Japan, so Africa may be more of a promising target to ensure future energy sources. We may wish the African countries much strength in the future in their attempts to retain their sovereignty.

All this is of course only a very small part of what really is going on worldwide, but we thought to highlight this, as it might have global repercussions in the near future.

Keep an open mind,

Alexander

 

Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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