Alexander's Commentary
Change of face - change of phase
A Future?
Climate-Change – Change of Climate
Oil-Around 2013
Finally there: The Campbell’s Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
New time arising
Ein heisser Herbst? (A hot Autumn?)
Where is this going? – 3
Where is this going? -2
Where is this going?
Is it important?
A Moment of Truth at Passing
The Iran Hoax
The 2012 Adventure
Solstice Greetings
Taking on the future
A new beginning
Twist and Turn
Fly-by-wire
Shale-gas: just a gas?
Little miracles, big wonders
Unconventional gas
Media-power
To Peak or not to Peak, is that the question?
Going on ...
Time for change
Economy; What Economy?
Media Noise Windfall Profit
The Winds of Change
Signs of the future?
Reality and Hope
Best Wishes
What goes around, comes around
A throughout, integrated view
Signs of change?
P.P.P. versus Need
Working for climate-change?
Good signs
Contradicting signals
All over again? The difference between perception and reality.
The paradigm, the mind-set and reality
Two minds
Positive inclination
Different values?
The long view
Leaping to the future
Contango
New signs of hope?
A message of hope?
Some good news anywhere?
A project gone awry?
Traces of light
Driving the markets II
Driving the markets
Meeting reality
Silence for the storm?
The times are changing
Refinery-runs
The Theatre
Some Questions, no answers
Ocean carbon sinks and returns
The good news, the bad and the ugly
A President speaks the truth!
Green masks
Saving us with or from bio-fuels?
The good news
Driving the oil-price?
A new dilemma?
Kenya: a new oil-frontier?
Forecasting a trend?
Some early signs for 2008
2007; A year to remember
The good news
A bit of a shock II
Fraud alert - bogus job ads
A bit of a shock
A simple but far-reaching idea
Hype, Realism, Convergence
Energy-security?
A touch of globality
Climate change and changing the climate
Refineries, Biofuels and internal demand
Figures, figures & figures
Pipelines, Biofuels & Reserves
Expectation, projections, contradictions.
Ponder
A box of Pandora?
Changing systems
A dynamical environment
Projections and reality
Changing reality
A different reality II
A different reality
PPP: Prices, poverty and politics
A whirling 2007
The year of shifting balances
One world, two systems?
Oil and development?
The year 2065?
Mixed signals II
Mixed signals
Trust
Awakening
A War on hold?
No Comment
Changing balances
Truth or Deception?
A fresh overview
Bigger picture first
National Interests vs. Shareholders Value
Fear??
'The Dialogue'
Consumption
Do we actually need to worry?
 

Fly-by-wire

On this day of yet another provoked almost-war, we may ask ourselves what the purpose of it all is, and whether the current unfolding situation is good for the world or just good for a few.

Is this tension-raising, media-howling and multiple 'international experts'-talk about the 'dangerous situation' around the Korean peninsula real? Or is it just again the next step in the geo-political games that currently engulf large parts of the planet, just like the 'terror-warning' Germany was so lucky to receive from their trans-Atlantic friends?

The world is on the verge of a thoroughly organized economic melt-down that is and will be concentrating very large parts of the wealth of the world in the hands of just a few handfuls of players that have access to all information and means needed to safeguard their 'investments'.

We are being told that 'the crisis is over' and that we can rest assured that all will be well, apart from maybe a few hick-ups of relatively small countries driven into near-bankruptcy or into a state of subservience to make sure they can continue to at least function, and walk the line as expected.

At the same time terror-warnings are being given out, packages are being sent and new terror-frontiers are being created, to fight the all-elusive 'enemy of our freedom' that pop up in too many convenient places under ever more fantastic names.

It is almost as if some people know something that most of us do not.

This also seems the case with the expectations for the still-to-be-expected oil-resources, that some see to be in abundance, whilst others are seeing the world on the verge of serious physical supply constraint.

Many non-political oil-reserve-specialists seem to be of the idea that notwithstanding some relatively, or seemingly, spectacular finds the last months and years, the world is not too far from an irreversible decline in supply.

Others, especially some of the biggest players in the market and some very official institutes, are staying with their mantra that enough oil is and will be available for the coming economic up-swing, as well as for the coming several decades. We can rest assured that oil will be there for all that want it, or at least, almost all.

Closer study of the details reveals however some massive gaps between the already found and the expected available resources, expected to be filled up with many not-yet-found fields and massive production-facilities.

What will happen, if countries, dependent on and trusting the official institutions in their energy outlooks, build up or re-build their economies in a way that will need substantial energy-resources, but then discover that energy is becoming a scarce commodity, and very expensive?

By the time the developments are well under way, oil may start to give signs of supply constraint, possibly expected in just a few (4,5,6..) years, and the price will start to rise. As we are still in an economic system based upon the paradigm 'tomorrow there will be more than today' , the shortage of a commodity is generally 'balanced-out' by a higher price, coming from the mind-set that a higher price will encourage more production. However, if we are entering in a state-of-affairs that a higher price will NOT mean more production, simply because there is no more production possible or available, there is no limit to the price, as we saw a few years ago with the pundits talking about possibly 200 or even 300 dollar per barrel.

This will mean that after some time, only the richest people will be able to heat their homes or drive their car or buy some food.

If therefore countries that have just started to build up their economies, providing more of their citizens with goods and services that are 'normal' here but a luxury there, unexpectedly are entering in an era of 'over-demand', meaning increasing demand but irreversible decline in supply, there may arise some substantial problems.

Well, it does not need a very bright mind to see that everything will go 'kaputt', as all development will be dead-ended by either lack of resources or excessive prices.

Many people that have worked hard their entire life may now be very disappointed to see everything they have worked for disappear or evaporate due to the apparent false policies of their country or political leaders. And some groupings will certainly give expression to their 'discontentment' and bring unrest and instability to their region, probably in many cases helped by friends.

And so we may ask what the purpose is of the obvious gap in knowledge between the few and the many, and whether it isn't time to start asking some fundamental questions, as we will find out that our current system, and everything that is attached to it, is not anymore compliant with reality, whether we are talking about our economic paradigms, the free market, press-freedom or the real situation of our energy resources.

Be aware,

Alexander


Alexander's Commentary

Change of face - change of phase

In the period of July 20 till August 3, 2015, Alexander will be out of the office and the site will not or only irreg

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