06-10-05 Saudi Arabia is to revive the giant mothballed Manifa oil field as part of its capacity expansion plans after 2009, according to a report by the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
With a well-detailed strategy already in place to boost the kingdom's production capacity to 12.5 mm bpd from a current 11 mm bpd, the indication that Manifa will finally be demothballed -- ending years of speculation-- provides the first glimpse at state Saudi Aramco's plans beyond the stated 2009 time frame.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi previously indicated that Manifa could be tapped if the kingdom needed to boost capacity beyond 13 mm bpd. The offshore Manifa field is capable of producing 1 mm bpd when fully developed, according to Aramco.
Following its discovery in 1957, the field was developed but later mothballed due to the heavy quality of its crude.

The launch of Manifa's development remains on hold until the kingdom builds refineries capable of handling its heavy 28 degrees API gravity crude, the CSIS report revealed.
"The combined costs of fitting this field and the lack of refining capacity for the heavy crude it produces is responsible for the delay in putting this field on line," said the report, entitled Saudi Arabia's Upstream and Downstream Expansion Plans for the Next Decade: A Saudi Perspective. To this end, Saudi Aramco has plans to build two new refineries: a joint venture 400,000 bpd refinery in Yanbu and a new grassroots refinery at Jubail, also projected to have capacity of 400,000 bpd.

Manifa is expected to act as a launch pad for the kingdom's extended plans to boost production capacity to 15 mm bpd beyond 2009.
Two other -- as-yet-unidentified -- projects could add a further 600,000 bpd to Saudi Arabia's heavier crude oil production, according to the report. However, these schemes are also dependent on the success of downstream projects to cater for the heavier crude as well, as market demand post-2010.

Aramco also has plans to boost production capacity at the remote Shaybah oil field to 1 mm bpd from a current 500,000 bpd, the report says. However, the first phase development of the field, which first came on stream in 1998, is for a 300,000 bpd increment by 2008. The report warns against projections that the kingdom could one day produce 20 mm bpd.
"While Aramco's geophysicists may be confident that new discoveries will be made and that past trends in increasing recovery rates will continue, they cannot offer absolute assurances that these will occur or that problems not now understood will materialize," the report warns.

Among the projects at various stages of development under the 12.5 mm bpd plan are the third phase of Haradh (300,000 bpd), Khursaniyah (500,000 bpd), Khurais (1.2 mm bpd), Shaybah (300,000 bpd) and Nuayyim (100,000 bpd). In raising capacity, Aramco also needs to account for existing field decline rates of 3 %-5 % per year.
Other downstream plans at the early stages of development include the upgrade and integration of the kingdom's 525,000 bpd Ras Tanura refinery and 235,000 bpd Yanbu refinery.