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 volume 13, issue #21 - Tuesday, November 25, 2008

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Russians want to invest in Alaska

15-10-08 Three weeks after Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska told that it seemed, at times, that the Russian prime minister, Vladimir Putin, "rears his head" over her state's border, a delegation of Russian energy executives, including close associates of Putin were in the capital, Anchorage, for talks on Russian energy investment in her state.
"The delegation of eight senior executives of Gazprom, the giant Russian natural gas company, met with Tom Erwin, the head of the state's natural resources department and a Palin appointee, as well as the chief executive of the Texas oil company ConocoPhillips, Jim Mulva."

"While Gazprom has expressed interest, however improbable, of investing in Alaskan pipelines before, the timing of the high-level delegation three weeks before a presidential election was considered peculiar. A Gazprom spokesman said the company had been invited to the state by ConocoPhillips."
"It was not immediately clear whether the Republican candidate for vice president, Palin, was aware of the visit. Her statement that she gained foreign policy expertise from her state's proximity to Russia has become a campaign issue," The International Herald Tribune reported.

Meanwhile, Russia's President Dmitri Medvedev delivered a speech in Evian, France, that was portrayed as an attack on the United States. But in a commentary, Samuel Charap and Andrew Kuchins saw an opening for improved Western-Russian relations.
"Overall, since its peak in mid-May, the RTS has lost over two-thirds of its value. Meanwhile, according to a top investment house, capital markets are 'broken', with the bond, derivative and money markets simply not functioning. Oddly enough, the crisis -- in plainly demonstrating the financial interdependence between Russia and the West -- has presented an opportunity to revive Western-Russian relations from their current post-Cold War low."

"Only last week, the Russian government approved an ambitious economic development plan to the year 2020. Even a cursory reading of theplan makes clear that trade, investment and broader economic cooperation with the West are far and away the most important prerequisites for higher growth scenarios."
"Deepening political tensions with the West are not compatible with this, something the Kremlin has evidently come to realise in recent days. The cooperative measures proposed in the Evian speech reflect this," the report added.

Reporting for Time magazine from Moscow, Yuri Zarakhovich wrote: "At the same moment Iceland, a NATO member and until very recently a prosperous Western nation, seemed ready to bite the dust in the global financial crisis, a cavalry rode to the rescue, just as it does in the movies. Except the cavalry in this case came from an unexpected direction: Russia."
"Why would Russia promise $ 5.4 bn to bail out Iceland, when Iceland's traditional allies weren't offering the money? After all, Russia has its own grave financial issues to deal with. Does the country really expect to be paid back in 'the famous Icelandic herring, popular in Russia since Soviet times' as Victor Tatarintsev, Russian ambassador to Iceland, noted in an interview on Russian television?"

"More likely, this act of benevolence is being viewed as a way for Russia to help secure a bridgehead for an advance into the Arctic regions to claim the vast hydrocarbon and other mineral deposits there. Iceland also happens to possess a once vital NATO base, which has been in mothballs since 2006, and the Russians may be eyeing that as well."
"There is a growing sense of urgency in Russia about all of this. Oil companies are posting declines in production as onshore oil and gas fields are getting depleted. Oil revenues account for 60 % of Russia's budget, which has been calculated for 2009 on the basis of $ 70 per bbl. But if the price goes below that, the country's petroleum windfall may be drastically reduced, and the budget could go into deficit."

"That is why the Arctic looks so enticing. Energy experts say the Arctic's continental shelf may containup to a quarter of the world's undiscovered oil and natural gas. 'The use of these energy reserves is a safeguard for Russia's energy security,' Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said. 'It is our duty to our descendants. We have to ensure the long-term national interests of Russia in the Arctic.' Thus, the $ 5.4 bn -- under terms more favourable than Moscow has extended to recapitalise one of its own major banks -- seems a modest price to pay."
The Times said: "Iceland secured EUR 200 mm (£ 156 mm) from Norway and Denmark as it sought help to stabilise its stricken economy, but talks to secure a far larger loan from Russia continued. It also emerged yesterday that the country, which has been forced to nationalise its banking sector, is only one of several asking the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for financial assistance. According to reports, Hungary, Ukraine and Serbia have signalled that they need help, too."

Time magazine also reported: "The IMF has vowed to deliver financial relief to any developing country facing an emergency. The World Bank says it has roughly $ 27 bn ready to offer in loans through the International Bank for Development and Reconstruction."
"But with a global recession looming, no coordinated plan addressing the needs of poor nations is being discussed."

"People are starting to worry a little bit that some of these emerging market countries are the ones that are left out," says Ben Carliner, director of research at the Economic Strategy Institute, a think tank in Washington.
"Uniform policy prescriptions don't come easy for a diverse group of countries ranging from Venezuela to Indonesia. For example, banking-sector repair and reform is likely more needed in India than in China, because India's financial sector is more intertwined with Western markets than China's is. Less sophisticated economies that rely on manufacturing and agriculture may largely avoid the pain that has accompanied the worldwide breakdown of complicated financial systems."

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com



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