By Shokhrat Muradov

24-07-03 Gazprom wants to increase the gas purchase from Uzbekistan, said the head of Russian giant Aleksei Miller in Tashkent. Gazprom, which began buying Uzbek gas in May 2003, plans to buy 5 bn cm of "blue gold" this year, 7 bn cm in 2004, and 10 bn cmpy from 2005 onward.
Moreover, Gazprom and Uzbekneftegaz signed contract on principles of Share Agreement on cooperation in exploration and production of carbohydrates in the fields of Usturt region of Uzbekistan. The base for that contract was created by a government decree signed by prime minister of Uzbekistan, Utkir Sultanov. It is planned that joint development of fields in that region will allow production of 2,5 bn cm of natural gas in 2004, and in future 5 bn cmpy.

It has become clear that Uzbekistan doesn’t want to be just a gas transit state, but wants to increase its export beyond the bounds of the region. But that plans creates threat to Turkmenistan, which also plan to expand its gas sales.
Furthermore, after Gazprom’s arrival in Uzbekistan, Tashkent doesn’t need to depend on revenues from transit of Turkmen gas, so it can use gas "lever" as instrument for putting pressure upon Turkmenistan, and even -- indirectly -- on Gazprom, which is the operator and buyer of Turkmen gas.

But for the short-term Uzbekistan does not have enough gas recourses to replace Turkmen gas, in which Gazprom is highly interested. For example, just in 2004 Gazprom plans to receive 42 bn cm of gas -- 6 bn for its own needs, and 36 bn as a transit operator for Ukraine. That’s why one of the themes of negotiations of the head of Gazprom in Tashkent became the issue of transit of Turkmen gas. During the talks the issue of attaching of such function for Gazprom in mid-term period it was discussed.
Besides its own export plans, official Tashkent is motivated by the desire to decrease Turkmen gas transit because of "limited capacity and depreciation of pipeline system of country." Therefore in Tashkent Gazprom announced intention to investin diagnosis and modernization of Central-Asia -- Centre Pipeline.

But for its investment for such kind of modernization Gazprom looks forward to "participate in joint ownership of built and reconstructed objects of gas-transport infrastructure". At that "upkeep and increasing of capacity of gas-transport system of Turkmenistan will allow to guarantee the security of supply of Uzbek gas to Russia and transit of natural gas from Turkmenistan", says Gazprom.
Consequently, Uzbekistan has joined the gas race against Turkmenistan. But at the same time Kazakhstan has also been presenting itself as a potential gas exporter.

So, in the near future there would be three contenders vying for the ever depreciating capacity of Central-Asia -- Centre Pipeline. The present capacity doesn’t exceed 44-47 bn cmpy, as said Gazprom recently.
It’s evident that there is just one alternative to gas war among the three Central Asia countries -- increase of capacity of current system of pipelines Central-Asia -- Centre.But could Tashkent, Ashgabat and Astana agree on joint participation in such a project? And if they could, the shape it would take only future can tell.