OPEC revises 2008 world oil growth forecast down to 1.20 %
15-07-08 OPEC revised down its forecast for growth of world oil demand this year to 1.20 % from 1.28 %, citing the economic slowdown and high fuel prices.
"The new price structure and slower world economy have helped dampen oil demand growth in many regions," it said in its monthly report.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries estimated that world oil demand would rise to 86.81 mm bpd in 2008, up from 85.78 mm bpd in 2007. The 12-member oil cartel also made its first forecast for 2009, predicting a 1.03-% hike in growth to 87.71 mm bpd, from 2008.
"Non-OECD countries' oil demand growth of 1.2 mm bpd will account for all of world oil demand growth next year," it said.
These forecasts however were "subject to uncertainties," OPEC added, noting that high transport-connected fuel prices, a continuing poor performance of the US economy and a warm winter could cut world oil demand growth.
"Most of the growth in oil usage will be in the transport fuel sector," it noted.
The cartel
also predicted a drop in demand for OPEC crude next year to 31.2 mm bpd from over 32.3 mm bpd currently, leading to "a significant build in inventories" in 2009.
"Combined with increasing OPEC capacity, (this) should further ease market conditions and likely help moderate prices," the report said. "Whether the market will fully benefit from these softening fundamentals will depend on other factors such a geopolitical tensions, financial market developments and downstream constraints, which have been the main drivers behind current crude oil price levels," it added.
Oil prices have almost doubled over the past year and have soared since breaking through $ 100 at the start of 2008. The record prices have sparked protests around the world amid fears for economic growth.
World oil prices jumped close to record heights as the dollar slumped to an all-time low against the euro, and amid ongoing supply tensions including a strike in Brazil. New York's main contract, light sweet crude for August delivery,
gained $ 1.21 to $ 146.39 a barrel, close to the record high of $ 147.27. London's Brent North Sea oil for August gained $ 1.36 to $ 145.31. Brent had jumped to an all-time high of $ 147.50.
Source: www.rigzone.com / AFX News Limited