Alexander's Gas & Oil Connections - The Future of Russian Refining and Exports of Oil Products

The Future of Russian Refining and Exports of Oil Products

Order this report: (Price: 2995 Euro)

Release: August 2005;
Volume: over 150 pages;
over 120 figures and tables;
Price: 2995 Euro

The Client Study provides thorough examination of the recent trends in Russian refining. From the basis of extensive downstream consulting and research experience RPI experts have processed a massive amount of industry data and interviews with industry players to come up with a study that goes deep into analysis of the sector's historical development and offers an outlook for the development of Russian downstream and exports of oil products. The study discusses how Russian downstream industry will cope with growing demand in Europe for Russian diesel and falling demand for fuel oil globally, what will happen to refinery throughput and how crude oil export infrastructure will influence downstream industry development.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. CURRENT RESERVES, PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION OF OIL IN RUSSIA
1.1 Resource Supply Base
Reserves and Resources of Oil with Condensate
Resource Supply Base Characteristics
Oil and Gas Deposits
Oil Reserves and Resources by Oil and Gas bearing Provinces
Western Siberian OGP
Eastern Siberian OGP
Volga Urals OGP
Timan Pechora OGP
Far Eastern OGP
Resource Supply Base Renewal
1.2 Oil Production
1.3 Oil Distribution Balance
2. EXISTING EXPORT TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE
2.1 Oil Export via Pipeline System
Overview
Principles Governing Operation of the Oil Pipeline System
Transneft Operator of the Pipeline System
Parameters and Structure of the Oil Pipeline System
Export Capacity of the Oil Pipeline System
Export Oil Pipelines Infrastructure Projects
Implemented in Recent Years
BPS
CPC
The Future of Russian Oil Exports
2.2 Railroad Transport
Parameters and Structure of Railway Infrastructure
Export Capacity of Railways in Terms of Bulk oil Haulage
Access to Railway Infrastructure
Companies' Own Tank Cars
Carriers' Services and Rolling Stock
Owners of Oil Tank Cars
Independent Oil Tank Car Owners
Oil Companies
2.3 River Transport
Parameters and Structure of River Transport Infrastructure
Main Directions of Bulk oil Exports by River Transport
Main Carriers of Bulk Oil by River Transport
2.4 Sea Terminals
Parameters and Structure of Sea Infrastructure
Main Directions of Oil Export via Seaports
The Black Sea Direction
Russian Ports
Novorossiysk (the Sheskharis Oil Terminal)
Yuzhnaya Ozereyevka
Tuapse
Kavkaz
Foreign ports
Odessa (Ukraine)
Yuzhny Terminal (Ukraine)
Feodosiya (Ukraine)
Kerch (Ukraine)
Northwestern (Baltic) Direction
Russian Ports
Primorsk
Kaliningrad
Foreign Ports
Ventspils (Latvia)
Butinge (Lithuania)
Tallinn (Estonia)
Gdansk (Poland)
Northern Direction
Vitino
Arkhangelsk
Varandei
Far Eastern Direction
De Kastri Terminal
Vityaz Production Complex
Caspian Direction
Makhachkala
Astrakhan
3. OIL EXPORT REGULATION
3.1 Oil Export Regulatory System
Regulatory Authorities
Oil Export Procedures
How it Works: The Mechanism of Producer Access
to Transneft's Export Infrastructure
3.2 Transport Tariffs
Pipeline Transport Tariffs
Special Tariffs
Railway Transport Tariffs
Cost of Railroad Transport by Destination
River Transport Tariffs
3.3 Taxation of Oil Exports
Export Duty
Value added Tax (VAT)
Customs Processing Fee
4. EXPORT ROUTES FROM RUSSIA TO WORLD MARKETS
4.1 How Much Oil Does Russia Really Ship for Export?
Export Shipments from Russian Oil Refineries
Re export from Ukraine and Belarus
4.2 Export of Oil to Non CIS Countries via Transneft's System
Druzhba Oil Pipeline Main Parameters
Terminal in Gdansk
Terminal in Rostock
Oil Pipelines' Advantages and Drawbacks
Delivery of Oil via the Druzhba Oil Pipeline
Main Exporters
Prospects for Pipeline Capacity Expansion
4.3 Export of Oil via Transneft's System through Seaports
Black Sea Export Direction
Novorossiysk
Tuapse
Odessa
Yuzhny
Transneft's Black Sea Route Strategy
Northwestern (Baltic) Export Direction
Transneft's Strategy Regarding Baltic Oil Transport
4.4 Export from Oilfields Skirting Transneft's System
Export via Sea Terminals
Sakhalin
Baltic Terminals
Northern Seas Terminals
Export by Rail
4.5 Export by Alternative Types of Transport
Export via Rail
Azov Black Sea Direction
Feodosia (Ukraine)
Kavkaz (Russia)
Baltic Direction
Tallinn (Estonia)
Buslavskaya (Russia)
Ventspils (Latvia)
Liepaya (Latvia)
Mazeikiu Nafta (Lithuania)
Kaliningrad (Russia)
Northern Seas Direction
Vitino
Arkhangelsk
Caspian Sea Direction
China Direction
Oil Export by River Transport
Export of Oil by River Transport: Main Directions
Azov Black Sea Direction
Caspian Direction
Northern Seas Direction
4.6 Comparative Analysis of Cost of Crude Transportation
by Various Export Routes
Pipeline Transport
Railway Transport
River Transport
5. PROSPECTS FOR OIL PRODUCTION AND EXPORT IN RUSSIA
5.1 Prospects for Production Growth
Energy Strategy of Russia
Oil Companies' Production Plans
Adjusted Forecast Based on First Quarter 2004 Data
5.2 Prospects for Export Growth
Forecast for Russian Oil Distribution and Export
Prerequisites for Attaining Projected Oil Production
and Export Levels
6. PROJECTS TO EXPAND OIL TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
6.1 Pipeline Infrastructure Expansion and Construction Projects
The Baltic Pipeline System (BPS)
Expansion of the Druzhba Oil Pipeline
Druzhba Adria
The Gdansk Route
Bratislava Vienna Oil Pipeline
Technical Constraints for Expansion of the Druzhba Pipeline
Pipeline from Eastern Siberia to the Pacific
Western Siberia Barents Sea Pipeline
6.2 Oil Terminal Expansion and Construction Projects
The Baltic Direction
Kaliningrad
Vysotsk
Ust Luga
Primorsk
The North Sea Direction
Varandei
Arkhangelsk
The Caspian Direction
Astrakhan
Far East Direction
Sakhalin 1
Sakhalin 2
6.3 Railroad Infrastructure Expansion and Construction Projects
Russian Railways (RRW) Projects
The YUKOS RRW Project
Other Oil Companies
6.4 Projects to Expand River Transport Infrastructure
6.5 Ex territorial Projects to Increase
Export Infrastructure for Russian Oil
The Baltic Route
Ventspils (Latvia)
Butinge (Lithuania)
Tallinn (Estonia)
The Black Sea Route
CPC
Ukrainian Ports
APPENDIX 1
Comparative Classification of Hydrocarbon Reserves and Resources
APPENDIX 2
Characteristics Of Russian and Caspian Oil
Russia
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
APPENDIX 3
Russia's Oil Production and Export
APPENDIX 4
Odessa Brody Plock Pipeline
Historical Background
Project Status
Implementation Prospects
APPENDIX 5
Bosporus Bottleneck
Pipeline Projects to Bypass the Strait of Bosporus
Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan
Project Status
Burgas Alexandrupolis
Kiyikoy Ibrikbaba
Burgas Vlore (Durras)
Constantsa Omisalj
APPENDIX 6
Iran Bound Projects
Swap Operations through Port of Neka
Other Iran Bound Routes
The Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Iran Pipeline
The Shimkent Turkmenabat Iran Route

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1 Russia's place in the world in terms of oil reserves, as of the end of 2003
Figure 1.2 Oil reserves and resources in Russia by oil and gas provinces as of the beginning of 2003, mln tons
Figure 1.3 Dynamics of oil production and reserves increase volumes, mln tons
Figure 1.4 Geological exploration costs of Russian VIOCs as a % of revenues in 1999 2001
Figure 1.5 Average price per barrel of acquired reserves in major oil producing regions, 1996 2002
Figure 1.6 Reserves to production ratio of Russian oil majors
Figure 1.7 Oil production in Russia, mln tons
Figure 1.8 Major world oil producers, 2002 2003, mln tons
Figure 1.9 Oil production in Russia by companies, mln tons
Figure 1.10 Capital investments into production by Russian oil companies, $ bln
Figure 1.11 Drilling by Russian oil companies, thousand meters
Figure 1.12 Relative lifting costs for Russian oil companies, $/bbl
Figure 1.13 Operating well stock of Russian oil companies, as of end of 2003, thousand units
Figure 1.14 The share of idle wells in the operating well stock by companies, as of end of 2003
Figure 1.15 Distribution of oil in Russia (data of the RF Ministry of Industry and Energy), mln tons
Figure 2.1 Oil export from Russia by types of transport to non CIS countries, 2003
Figure 2.2 Oil export from Russia by pipeline transport in 2003, mln tons
Figure 2.3 Duration of service of oil pipelines in Russia, as of end 2003
Figure 2.4 Current throughput capacity and actual oil transport via Russian export oil pipelines to non CIS countries in 2003, mln tons
Figure 2.5 Bulk oil shipments by rail in Russia
Figure 2.6 Oil shipments by rail to sea ports in 2003, mln tons
Figure 2.7 Railway oil loading racks operated by Transneft
Figure 2.8 Dynamics of the number of tank cars operated by private companies and RRW
Figure 2.9 Major owners of bulk oil tank cars (as of the beginning of 2004)
Figure 2.10 Oil and petroleum products export by river transport, mln tons
Figure 2.11 Principal carriers of bulk oil cargoes
Figure 2.12 Main seaports transshiping Russian oil, as of the end of 2003
Figure 2.13 Technical specifications of Estonian terminals, as of the end of 2003
Figure 3.1 Production to export ratios (export to non CIS countries) for different companies using Transneft system, 2003
Figure 3.2 Transneft pipeline tariffs, as of April 2004
Figure 3.3 Relative effectiveness of oil and liquid petroleum product export for various destinations, as of pril 2004
Figure 4.1 Total export of Russian oil to non CIS countries: statistics of the RF Ministry of Industry and Energy, mln tons
Figure 4.2 Delivery of oil to Russian refineries and the volume of primary crude oil distillation, mln tons
Figure 4.3 Delivery of oil to Ukrainian refineries controlled by Russian companies, and primary crude oil distillation volume, mln tons
Figure 4.4 Export of Russian oil, mln tons
Figure 4.5 Transit of Caspian oil by pipelines via Russian territory, mln tons
Figure 4.6 Technical parameters of the Druzhba oil pipeline, as of the end of 2003
Figure 4.7 Delivery of oil via the Druzhba oil pipeline to non CIS countries, mln tons
Figure 4.8 Shipments by Russian companies via Druzhba pipeline in 2003, mln tons
Figure 4.9 Shipments of oil via Transneft system to the Black Sea ports, mln tons
Figure 4.10 Transshipment of oil via Novorossiysk, January 2003 March 2004, mln tons
Figure 4.11 Oil deliveries to Novorossiysk by rail, January 2003 March 2004, thousand tons
Figure 4.12 Export of oil via Novorossiysk, Tuapse and Odessa by companies, mln tons
Figure 4.13 Transshipment of oil via Odessa in 2003, mln tons
Figure 4.14 Oil deliveries via Transneft's system in the Baltic direction, mln tons
Figure 4.15 Export shipments of Russian oil via the Baltics, January December 2002, thousand tons
Figure 4.16 Export of oil from oilfields bypassing Transneft's system, mln tons
Figure 4.17 Production and export of oil in Sakhalin, mln tons
Figure 4.18 Export of oil bypassing Transneft's system via ports and transshipment complexes in northern seas, thousand tons
Figure 4.19 Export of oil from Transneft's oil loading racks, mln tons
Figure 4.20 Oil deliveries to refineries and primary distillation by companies, mln tons
Figure 4.21 Oil export shipments by rail, mln tons
Figure 4.22 Delivery of oil to Taman peninsula and Crimea ports by rail, mln tons
Figure 4.23 Main destinations of export by rail in 2003
Figure 4.24 Delivery of oil from Russia to Baltic states by rail, mln tons
Figure 4.25 Delivery of oil by rail to terminals in Kaliningrad, mln tons
Figure 4.26 Transshipment of oil via Vitino, mln tons
Figure 4.27 Oil export to China, thousand tons
Figure 4.28 Export of oil by river transport: main directions, 2003, mln tons
Figure 4.29 Pipeline oil export economics by routes, $/t (as of end of February 2004)
Figure 4.30 Freight rates from Primorsk to Rotterdam, $/t
Figure 4.31 Cost of crude shipment by rail to Russian and foreign ports, $/t
Figure 5.1 Projected oil production in Russia until 2020, mln tons
Figure 5.2 Projected growth of oil production in Russia: 2004 2010
Figure 5.3 Projected oil production in Russia in 2004, mln tons
Figure 5.4 Production and primary distillation of oil in Russia, mln tons
Figure 5.5 Changes in petroleum products yield due to conversion enhancement
Figure 5.6 Current throughput capacity and actual transport of oil via Russian export oil pipelines to non CIS countries in 2003, mln tons
Figure 5.7 Projected growth of pipeline system throughput capacity, mln tons per year
Figure 6.1 Comparative characteristics of pipeline projects from Eastern Siberia
Figure 6.2 Key technical and economic parameters of the Western Siberia Barents Sea pipeline
Figure 6.3 Costs of oil transport from Murmansk to the US vs. other routes
Figure 6.4 Oil terminals under construction and proposed new terminals
Figure 6.5 Oil deliveries to China by rail, mln tons
Figure 6.6 Tank car fleet serving YUKOS's export to China
Figure A1.1 Comparative classification of hydrocarbon reserves/resources
Figure A3.1 Oil production in 2003, thousand tons
Figure A3.2 Russia oil exports by destination using the Transneft system in 2003, thousand tons
Figure A5.1 Key parameters of the proposed bypass routes

LIST OF MAPS

Map 1.1 Main oil and gas bearing regions in Russia
Map 2.1 Russia's oil pipeline system
Map 2.2 Baltic Pipeline System (BPS)
Map 2.3 Oil pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC)
Map 2.4 Unified Deep Waterways System in European Russia
Map 2.5 Oil transport infrastructure on the Black Sea Coast
Map 2.6 Oil transport infrastructure on the Taman Peninsula and the Crimea
Map 2.7 The Kaliningrad Region oil transport infrastructure
Map 2.8 Oil transport infrastructure in the northwest direction
Map 2.9 Northern direction of the oil export
Map 2.10 Caspian direction of oil export
Map 4.1 The Druzhba pipeline system
Map 6.1 Druzhba oil pipeline expansion projects
Map 6.2 Distribution balance for crude pumped through the Druzhba pipeline in 2003
Map 6.3 Proposed route for the Eastern Siberian Pacific pipeline
Map 6.4 Proposed routes for the Western Siberia Barents Sea pipeline
Map 6.5 Planned expansion and/or construction of Russian oil terminals in the Baltic Region
Map 6.6 Transport infrastructure of the Sakhalin 1 and Sakhalin 2 projects (the Sea of Okhotsk)
Map 6.7 Connecting the CPC oil pipeline to the Transneft system
Map A4.1 Odessa Brody pipeline
Map A5.1 Proposed pipelines to bypass Bosporus
Map A6.1 Existing and proposed routes for export of Russian and Caspian crude to Iran

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