South Eastern Europe in the Big Eurasian Gas Game: New Supply and Transit Challenges

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Release date: January 2007
Language: English
Volume: over 50 pages, more than 20 graphs, maps and tables
Price: 740 EURO

Natural gas remains the key source of energy for the European Union and the biggest share of it is currently supplied by Russia's Gazprom. With energy security at the top of EU's agenda, diversification of gas supply routes is set as top priority for the coming years.

South Eastern Europe (SEE) is a region expected to play a crucial role in mid- and long-term gas supply diversification for most of Europe. Currently at stake for SEE is the advantage of becoming a new hub of gas transit from Middle East, Central Asia and the Caspian region en route to EU consumers.

The struggle for control over delivery routes going through SEE will put into international conflict the interests of companies and governments on several continents from Italy to Iran and from Austria to Egypt.

Gas demand in the SEE countries themselves is forecasted to grow by 40% by 2020 which will make competition for their gas markets stronger in the coming years.

South Eastern Europe in the Big Eurasian Gas Game: New Supply and Transit Challenges examines:

• current status and structural changes in the natural gas demand of SEE
• natural gas exports to the SEE region; key transportation projects, planned and under construction
• the Nabucco project as catalyst and driver of developments and changes on the SEE gas market
• Gazprom's plans for the region to combat competition challenges
• growing impact of Turkey as a key transit country
• competition between gas transportation projects, apart from Nabucco project and Gazprom's plans

South Eastern Europe in the Big Eurasian Gas Game: New Supply and Transit Challenges is an important source of analysis for:

• gas producing companies
• gas transportation, distribution and trading companies, and utilities
• power generation and industrial companies
• service and equipment suppliers
• investment and banking institutions
• consultancies; financial advisors
• government institutions

Table of contents

• Introduction
• 1. Current State of the South East European Gas Market
• 1.1. Gas Consumption in South Eastern Europe
• 1.2. Gas Supply in SEE Countries
• 1.3. Dependence of the SEE Region on Natural Gas Supplies from Russia
• 2. The Concept of Gas Export Channel to Europe: Special Role in Ensuring European Energy Security
• 2.1. Institutional Base for Additional Gas Export Channel
• 2.2. Main Reasons for Developing New Transport Routes
• 3. Liberalization Processes and European Integration in SEE's Natural Gas Sector
• 3.1. Energy Community South East Europe
• 3.2. The Secretariat of the Energy Community South East Europe
• 3.3. Current Status of Cooperation between the EU and SEE Countries
• 3.4. West European Companies in SEE
• 4. New Major Gas Supply Projects in SEE
• 4.1. The South Caucasus Gas Pipeline
• 4.2. Interconnector Turkey Greece
• 4.3. Pan Arabian Gas Pipeline
• 4.4. Nabucco
• 4.5. Trans Caspian Gas Pipeline
• 4.6. Adria LNG
• 4.7. Blue Stream 2
• 5. The Growing Impact of Turkey on the Gas Market of SEE
• 5.1. Gas Imports in Turkey
• 5.2. Forecasting Errors and the Re export Idea
• 5.3. Natural Gas Law of 2001 and Contracts Redistribution Policy
• 5.4. Turkey's Natural Gas Market Development
• 5.5. Turkey as Perceived by Partner Countries
• 6. The Nabucco project. A Catalyst and Major Trend setter in SEE
• 6.1. Current Status
• 6.2. Current Challenges Facing the Project
• 6.3. Strategic Plans and Expectations of Participating Companies
• 6.4. Sources of Gas Supply for the Nabucco Project
• 6.5. Nabucco SWOT Analysis
• 6.6. Project's Impact on the Competitive Environment
• 6.7. Gazprom's Attempts to Recapture Initiative
• Conclusions

Maps

• Map 1. The Countries of South Eastern Europe
• Map 2. Share of Natural Gas in Total Primary Energy Consumption by Country in 2005
• Map 3. Blue Stream Gas Pipeline
• Map 4. Proposed Burgas Vlore Corridor 8 Gas Transportation Route
• Map 5. The South Caucasus Gas Pipeline
• Map 6. Interconnector Turkey Greece
• Map 7. The Pan Arabian Gas Pipeline
• Map 8. Possible Route of Trans Caspian Gas Pipeline
• Map 9. Adria LNG Terminal and Gas Distribution Routes
• Map 10. Gas Import Routes to Turkey and Maximally Possible Delivery Volumes
• Map 11. The Nabucco Gas Pipeline Route

Tables

• Table 1. Parameters of SEE Regional Development
• Table 2. Projections for Gas Consumption in South East Europe in 2006 2020 (bcm)
• Table 3. Gazprom's Supplies and their Share in Consumption and Imports, 2005
• Table 4. Gazprom's Affiliated Companies in SEE
• Table 5. Major International Gas Transportation Projects in SEE
• Table 6. Turkey's Natural Gas Import Agreements
• Table 7. Natural Gas Consumption Forecast by Sector according to Botas' Forecast Made in 2000 (bcm)
• Table 8. Assessment of Results of 2005 Tender for Russian Contract
• Table 9. Incremental Demand for Natural Gas in Countries Participating in the Nabucco Project (bcm)
• Table 10. Estimate of Additional Gas Demand in Countries Participating in the Nabucco Project (bcm)
• Table 11. SWOT Analysis of the Nabucco Project

Charts

• Chart 1. Natural gas consumption in SEE in 1990 2005 (bcm)
• Chart 2. Natural gas consumption in SEE by sector (%)
• Chart 3. Potential Demand for Natural Gas from Electric Power Utilities Through 2020 (bcm)
• Chart 4. Gas Production in Bulgaria from 2000 through 2005 (bcm)
• Chart 5. Gazprom Deliveries to Bulgaria in 2000 2005 (bcm)
• Chart 6. Gas Production in Croatia in 2000 2005 (bcm)
• Chart 7. Gazprom Deliveries to Croatia in 2000 2005 (bcm)
• Chart 8. Gas Production in Hungary in 2000 2005 (bcm)
• Chart 9. Gas Import of Hungary in 2005. Total 12.4 bcm
• Chart 10. Gas Production in Romania in 2000 2005 (bcm)
• Chart 11. Gas Imports of Romania in 2005 (%). Total 6.25 bcm
• Chart 12. Slovenian Natural Gas Imports in 2005 (%). Total 1.1 bcm
• Chart 13. Gas Deliveries to Greece in 2005 (%). Total 2.86 bcm
• Chart 14. Gas Deliveries to Turkey in 2005 (%)
• Chart 15. Gazprom Gas Deliveries to Serbia and Montenegro in 2000 2005 (bcm)
• Chart 16. Adria LNG Project Participants' Shares (%)
• Chart 17. Natural Gas Consumption in Turkey by Segment in 2005 (%)
• Chart 18. Natural Gas Consumption Growth in Turkey: Botas's Forecast for 2005 (bcm)
• Chart 19. Overestimated and Current Gas Demand vs. Gas Contracted by Turkey in 2005 2020 (bcm)
• Chart 20. Nabucco Company Structure 2006
• Chart 21. Natural Gas Sales Planned for the Nabucco Pipeline in 2011 2020 (bcm)
• Chart 22. OMV Gas Business Ownership
• Chart 23. OMV's Mid Term Strategic Objectives
• Chart 24. Natural Gas Reserves of Countries that are Potential Suppliers for the Nabucco Project (tcm), 2006
• Chart 25. Key Parameters of Pipeline Capacity and Projected Natural Gas Sales in 2011 2030 (bcm)
• Chart 26. The Shakh Deniz Project Participants (%)
• Chart 27. Maximum Deliveries via the Nabucco Project through 2020 (bcm)

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