05-06-02 Petrostrategies, a weekly trade publication, recently published a study that put the proven oil reserves of the Caspian Sea at just 39.4 bn barrels. Figures cited by US government officials of 200 bn barrels are severely inflated and not realistic, said the study, which was conducted by consultants from Wood Mackenzie.

The study also stated that Iran's section of the Caspian Sea held virtually no oil and that Russia's section held just 1 bn barrels.
These figures are much in line with an assessment published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 1998, the study said. It stated, though, that the IEA's projections for future Caspian Sea oil production were probably overstated.

The agency said in 1998 that Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan would probably be extracting 4.5-5.9 mm barrels of oil apiece in 2020. The study said, however, that output would likely fall within a range of 3.5 mm bpd to 4.0 mm bpd.
It also pointed out that oil output would not be split equally among all five Caspian littoral states. In 2010, it said, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan alone will account for fully 57 % of all Caspian oil production.