17-12-08 Increased US natural gas development and higher gas consumption by electric utilities will define the supply and demand picture through 2030, the US Energy Information Administration said in a report.
EIA, the US Department of Energy's statistical and analytical arm, said in its Annual Energy Outlook 2009 that the development of unconventional gas basins, offshore production along the US Outer Continental Shelf and gas from Alaska will offset declining imports of gas over the next two decades. EIA projects that the net import share of total gas use will decline through 2030, from 16 % in 2007 to less than 3 % in 2030.

Across the energy sectors, the outlook projects flat oil consumption out to 2030, reduced growth in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions and reductions in US dependence on foreign energy imports. Coal, oil and natural gas together are projected to meet 79 % of total US primary energy supply in 2030, according to EIA, cutting that projection from the 85 % share predicted in the 2007 report. Domestic gas production is expected to total 23.7 tcf by 2030, the report said.
"While exploration-and-production costs rise over time, higher natural gas prices support the projected level of production," EIA predicted.

Unconventional gas production, including shale gas, is projected to increase to 13.2 tcf in 2030 from 9.2 tcf in 2007. On the gas-consumption side, electric generation is driving growth.
"New natural gas and renewable plants account for the majority of generating capacity additions," the report says. Still, because of that increase in generating capacity and the displacement of some coal by renewables and other sources, gas' share of power generation is expected to remain at 19 % to 22 % of the total through 2030.