Volume 2, issue #16 - 05-06-1997

May 21, 1997 Led by burgeoning use in Asia, world energy demand shows strong prospects for growth over the next 20 years, according to the International Energy Outlook 1997, released by Energy Information Administration (EIA). In its latest forecast, it says that by 2015 world energy demand will rise by 54 % over 1995 levels. The newly emerging Asian economies (including China and India, but excluding the developed countries of Australia, Japan, and New Zealand) will contribute 45 % of the projected increase in world energy consumption between 1995 and 2015. The industrial sector growth, which motivates Asia's strong economic performance, will be the driving force, claims the study.
Developing Asia will account for 53 % of energy demand outside the industrialised world in 2015, while energy consumption in developing Asia will exceed US consumption by 9 % in 2005, and by 44 % in 2015 when it surpasses consumption in all of North America.
These projections are subject to much uncertainty, it says, especially in China, where energy demand in the transportation sector may undergo considerable change.
The report says oil demand in developing Asia will grow at an annual rate of 4 % between 1995 and 2015. In China it will increase by nearly 5 % annually. If developments in China's transportation sector follow those already seen in Thailand and South Korea -- where double-digit growth rates in automobile ownership are expected to continue throughout the 1990s -- the EIA growth projected could be drastically underestimated.
Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source over the forecast period (by more than 3 % annually), gaining share relative to oil and coal. By 2015, gas demand should surpass coal consumption on a world-wide basis, as resource availability, cost, and environmental considerations all favour its use in industrial applications and electricity generation, notes the study.
World-wide, natural gas consumption is predicted to reach nearly 145 tcf by 2015 (85 % more than in 1995), with the highest regional growth rates seen in the developing countries. In developing Asia, gas demand is expected to increase by almost 8 % annually.