Highlights of IHS World Petroleum Trends Report

Jul 09, 2001 02:00 AM

IHS Energy Group, the world's leading provider of oil and gas information, and consulting services, has released its World Petroleum Trends (WPT) Report 2001, which highlights and examines petroleum trends during the year 2000, and also presents key oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) data figures for the preceding decade (1991-2000). These figures represent activity in more than 150 countries.
For years, new ventures analysts, economists and planners in energy companies, governments, national oil companies and service companies, have relied on WPT as a key indicator of industry health or productivity.
Some of the report's highlights include:

2000 -- Another successful year for global exploration
Worldwide, (excluding North America) new-field wildcat drilling bounced back from a 1999 low of 629 wells to a completion rate of 826 wells, which was still fewer than any other year during the 1990s.
Despite this, the provisional estimate is that wildcat drilling discovered some 14.3 bn barrels of liquids in 2000, which is still a 10 % decline from 1999. However, as in 1999, the 2000 total was skewed by one giant discovery, in this case, it was the Kashagan-East Field, which is located offshore of Kazakhstan.
At the time WPT was produced, oil reserves were estimated at 6.4 mm barrels recoverable, but the subsequent drilling of Kashagan West, which may be in continuity with Kashagan East, led the operator to announce proven reserves of 10 bn barrels of oil. If this is confirmed, then 2000 will have seen the greatest volume of liquids discovered in a single year since the discovery of vast amounts of gas condensate in South Pars, Iran, in 1991.
Gas discoveries also were high in 2000 -- with an estimated 87 tcf discovered. This compares to 108 tcf discovered in 1999, but the 2000 figure will also rise with the success at Kashagan West. Nevertheless, although both 1999 and 2000 showed a satisfactory increase over the trough period of 1992 to 1997, both years are eclipsed by the nearly 500 tcf of gas discovered in 1991, the year South Pars was discovered.

Reserves replacement by new field discoveries
The following table shows the percentage of liquids produced, which were replaced by new-field discoveries during the last decade. The countries chosen are the top 15 non-OPEC producers for the year 2000. The United States and Canada are excluded from this list, because comparable data is not available.

Top 15 non-OPEC producers in 2000
Liquid reserves replacement from new field discoveries

Country Replacement (%)
1996 - 2000 1991 - 2000
1 Russia 18 14
2 Mexico 15 22
3 Norway 37 45
4 China 49 57
5 United Kingdom 17 26
6 Brazil 202 164
7 Oman 39 42
8 Egypt 37 34
9 Kazakhstan 623 350
10 Argentina 35 36
11 Angola 653 403
12 Malaysia 19 46
13 India 8 20
14 Colombia 30 121
15 Australia 107 80

Top 15 66 54

World (excluding US and Canada) 37 42
OPEC 35 47
Non-OPEC 41 36

These figures represent IHS Energy Group's estimate of volumes found in new-field discoveries and exclude any revisions made to fields discovered before 1991.

Oil and condensate reserves continue to decline
Reserves are influenced by revisions but according to IHS Energy Group's methodology, such revisions are backdated to the time of the initial discovery. However, despite such revisions and the addition of new field discoveries, IHS Energy estimates that remaining recoverable reserves continued to decline throughout the decade as annual production rose from 68.5 mm bpd to 73.6 mm bpd. Remaining liquid reserves now stand at 1,100 bn barrels compared to 1,207 bn barrels of reserves at the end of 1991. During this period, the reserves-to-production Ratio (R/P) has decreased from 48 years to 41 years, which indicates the world's demand for oil continues to outpace its supply, and the gap between the two is widening.

Gas reserves hold steady
In contrast, while gas production has increased at almost twice the rate of oil production during the last decade, gas reserves have remained constant as new discoveries, when combined with several revisions, have matched production. Remaining conventional gas reserves are now estimated to be 5,876 tcf, hardly changed from the 1991 level. During the last decade, annual gas production has increased by 16 % and the R/P ratio has declined from 75 years to 64 years, which indicates that worldwide gas utilisation will not be reserve constrained in the foreseeable future, although there may be regional differences and constraints.

Exploration performance not quite as good as 1999
Although new-field wildcat drilling showed an upturn in 2000, the number of oil discoveries declined slightly, and the number of gas discoveries increased. The overall exploration success rate was 38 %, which remained close to the 10-year average. The average discovery size in 2000 was 93 mm boe, well above the 10-year average of 73 mm boe.

Hope for the future
A hopeful sign for exploration in the coming years is that seismic data coverage, both 2-D and 3-D, saw significant increases above 1999 activity. Collection of 2-D seismic was at its highest level since 1993. And 3-D seismic coverage has continued to rise during the decade. In 2000, it increased at 12 times the rate recorded in 1991. New exploration awards, which had seen a dramatic decline in 1999, showed a significant increase during 2000, a year in which the first awards for exploration off the Faroe Islands were made.

IHS Energy Group is the world's leading resource for information relating to oil and gas exploration, development and production activities. IHS Energy Group was formed in 1998 following the merger of Petroleum Information/Dwights, Petroconsultants, PI (ERICO), MAI Consultants and IEDS. Most recently, IHS Energy acquired QC Data's Petroleum Data Services Division and its AccuMap Enerdata Division. This acquisition complements IHS Energy's existing data sets while at the same time launches the company into the international log-data market.
Collectively, IHS Energy Group provides a single, convenient resource for worldwide information, delivery systems, analytical tools, and economics and consulting services. IHS Energy Group is a wholly owned subsidiary of Colorado-based IHS Group.

Source: IHS Energy
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