Pakistan faces natural gas shortfall in future

Feb 25, 2002 01:00 AM

Pakistan is estimated to face a natural gas shortfall of 3,600 to 6,000 mm cfpd by the year 2020 if pipeline projects for its import are not materialized. This has been revealed in a provisional report submitted to the ministry of petroleum and natural resources by private consultancy firm Hagler Bailly.
Pakistan's oil import bill stood at $ 3 bn during the last fiscal year but is expected to imports would go up proportionately and oil import bill is estimated to surpass $ 15 bn by the year 2020. The report found that the country would have a total supplies of 3,034 mm cfpd of gas in 2004 against a gross demand of 3,271 mm cfpd leaving a shortfall of 237 mm cfpd. By 2006, the shortfall would increase to 476 mm cfpd as total supply is projected to be at 3,264 mm cfpd against a gross demand of 3,690 mm cfpd.

The firm was assigned by the government to prepare a study on gas demand and supply position so that it could formulate strategy on import of gas pipeline projects from Qatar, Iran or Turkmenistan. Pakistan and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding to undertake a pre-feasibility of Iran to India overland pipeline. BHP, an Australian company, had completed a similar study a few years back on the Iran-Pakistan pipeline, has once again been assigned to prepare the pre-feasibility.
Based on development of already discovered gas fields and projected future discoveries, the total supply of gas is estimated to increase very slowly, around 100 mm cfpd per year, till 2008. The gas supplies would start declining at an average 175 mm cfpd from 2008 to 2020.
The supplies will reduce from 3,381 mm cfpd in 2009 to 1,567 mm cfpd in 2020. Gross demand would keep on increasing at an average 200 mm cfpd of gas and jump to 7,515 in 2020 from 3,015 mm cfpd in 2004. Even in the moderate GDP growth rate, gross demand would go up to 5,175 mm cfpd by 2020 against conservative estimated demand of 2,997 mm cfpd in 2004. The gross demand is based on transmission, distribution and compression losses at 8 % and decreased to 6 % by 2005. The losses are projected to remain constant at 6 % till 2020.

The firm gave a detailed presentation to petroleum minister and based its study on two scenarios of high and moderate gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates. The deficit is expected to increase from 237 mm cfpd in 2004 to 591 mm cfpd in 2007 and 775 mm cfpd in 2008. The deficit will further increase to 1,053 mm cfpd in 2009 and almost double to 2,456 mm cfpd in 2013. The gas deficit would increase to 3,219 mm cfpd in 2015, 4,785 mm cfpd in 2018 and 5,947 mm cfpd in 2020.
Under the moderate growth rate scenario, a surplus of 37 mm cfpd to 43 mm cfpd is expected to prevail during the period 2004-06. However, deficit would start from fiscal year 2007 with a nominal 23 mm cfpd and increase to 202 mm cfpd in fiscal 2009. The deficit would further increase from 432 mm cfpd in fiscal 2010 to 1,370 mm cfpd in fiscal 2013. The shortfall would touch 1,954 mm cfpd in 2015, 2,967 mm cfpd in 2018 and touch 3,610 mm cfpdin 2020.

Source: The DAWN Group of Newspapers
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