IEA believes by 2030, global-warming gases are set to rise by 57 %

Nov 07, 2007 01:00 AM

Emissions of greenhouse gases will rise by 57 % by 2030 compared to current levels, leading to a rise in Earth's surface temperature of at least 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit), the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
In its annual report on global energy needs, the Paris-based agency projected greenhouse-gas pollution would rise by 1.8 % annually by 2030 on the basis of projected energy use and current efforts to mitigate emissions.

The IEA saw scant chance of bringing this pollution down to a stable, safer level any time soon. It poured cold water on a scenario sketched earlier this year by the Nobel-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN's paramount authority on global warming and its effects.
The IPCC said that to limit the average increase in global temperatures to 2.4 degrees C (4.3 degrees F) -- the most optimistic of any of its scenarios -- the concentration of greenhouse gases would have to stabilise at 450 parts per mm (ppm) of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. The IPCC warned that, to achieve this goal, CO2 emissions would have to peak by 2015 at the latest and then fall between 50 and 85 % by 2050. But the 2007 edition of the IEA's World Energy Outlook saw no peak in emissions before 2020.

To achieve the 450 ppm target would mean that CO2 from energy sources would have to peak by 2012, and this would require a massive drive in energy efficiency and switch to non-fossil fuels, the report said.
"Emissions savings (would have to) come from improved efficiency in fossil-fuel use in industry, buildings and transport, switching to nuclear power and renewables, and the widespread deployment of CO2 capture and storage in power generation and industry," the IEA said. "Exceptionally quick and vigorous action by all countries and unprecedented technological advances, entailing, substantial costs, would be needed to make this case a reality."

Under the IEA's most optimistic scenario, which takes into account measures that are currently in the planning stage for tackling emissions, greenhouse-gas pollution would rise by 1 % per year, rather than 1.8 % on present trends. Emissions would decline steadily beyond 2030, translating into an eventual rise in temperatures of "about" 3 degrees C (5.4 degrees F), IEA analyst Trevor Morgan said.
In contrast, under the IEA's most pessimistic scenario, warming could reach 6 degrees C (10.8 degrees F) if China and India continue their strong growth relentlessly, using coal as a principal energy source. By 2030, the biggest polluters would be China, the United States, India, Russia and Japan, the IEA said.

In a massive report issued this year, the IPCC said that since 1900, the mean global atmospheric temperature had risen by 0.8 degrees C (1.44 degrees F) and levels of CO2, which account for about three-quarters of greenhouse-gas output, are now at their highest in 650,000 years. This temperature rise has already caused glaciers, snow and ice cover to fall back sharply in alpine regions, reduced the scope of Arctic sea ice and caused Siberian and Canadian permafrost to retreat.
By 2100, global average surface temperatures could rise by between 1.1 degrees C (1.98 degrees F) and 6.4 degrees C (11.52 degrees F) compared to 1980-99 levels, the IPCC said. Heat waves, flooding, drought, tropical storms and surges in sea level are among the events expected to become more frequent, more widespread and/or more intense this century, the scientists said.

Source: AFP
Market Research

The International Affairs Institute (IAI) and OCP Policy Center recently launched a new book: The Future of Natural Gas. Markets and Geopolitics.


The book is an in-depth analysis of some of the fastest moving gas markets, attempting to define the trends of a resource that will have a decisive role in shaping the global economy and modelling the geopolitical dynamics in the next decades.

Some of the top scholars in the energy sector have contributed to this volume such as Gonzalo Escribano, Director Energy and Climate Change Programme, Elcano Royal Institute, Madrid, Coby van der Linde, Director Clingendael International Energy Programme, The Hague and Houda Ben Jannet Allal, General Director Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie (OME), Paris.

For only €32.50 you have your own copy of The Future of Natural Gas. Markets and Geopolitics. Click here to order now!


Upcoming Conferences
« September 2018 »
1 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Register to announce Your Event

View All Events