New outlook for EU energy demand till 2020

Nov 20, 2008 01:00 AM

The European Commission has released a new outlook for the EU energy demand till 2020. The gas import will probably decline by 25 % vs. the basic scenario, the oil import will lose 13 % and the import of coal will shed by 36 % to 46 %.
Russia is the biggest gas supplier to the EU and the second exporter of crude oil. So, Gazprom and the oil companies will have to revise their export plans and constructing Nord Stream and South Stream pipelines might lose all expediency.

The European Commission released November 13 its new energy policy, the EU Energy Security and Solidarity Action Plan. The concept slashes the plans for constructing gas, fuel oil and coal power plants.
The energy capacity of EU will widen by 2020 only by 5 % to 6.3 % instead of 20 %. As a result, the gas import will lower by 25 % vs. the previous forecast, the oil import will lose 13 % and the import of coal will shed by 36 % to 46 %.

Russia is the key supplier of energy to the European Union, and Gazprom has already voiced its apprehension in respect of the EU outlook. EU won't need additional import of gas, including from Russia, Gazprom Deputy CEO Alexander Medvedev said at The Gas of Russia Conference November 18.
"In 2020, according to the IEA, the EU and Turkey will import roughly 100 bn cm of LNG as well as the pipeline gas in the amount of 500 bn cm," the top manager explained.

"Of this amount, 240 bn to 280 bn will be supplied by Russia, Asia and North Africa. Last year, 175 bn cm of gas entered from those sources. So, the demand for new gas from Russia will be 65 bn cm to 105 bn cm in 2020."
"The IEA outlook is close to our estimate. But the new energy policy of EU provides for abrupt reduction in energy import," Medvedev said, specifying that if Europe doesn't need the pipeline gas of Russia, Gazprom will process it to LNG and sell on other markets.

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