Venezuela to have 8.13 % of regional oil demand and 26.46 % of supply

Jun 23, 2009 02:00 AM

Venezuela will account for 8.13 % of Latin American regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 26.46 % of supply, according to the latest Venezuela Oil and Gas Report by analyst BMI.
Latin America regional oil use of 6.66 mm bpd in 2001 reached an estimated 7.61 mm bpd in 2008, according to BMI. It should average 7.57 mm bpd in 2009 and then rise to around 8.23 mm bpd by 2013, BMI said.

Regional oil production was just under 10.4 mm bpd in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 9.89 mm bpd. It is set to rise to 10.58 mm bpd by 2013.
"Oil exports are slipping because demand growth is exceeding the pace of supply expansion," BMI said, adding that in 2001, "the region was exporting an average 3.73 mm bpd."

This total fell to an estimated 2.28 mm bpd in 2008 and is forecast to be 2.35 mm bpd in 2013. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Brazil.
Regarding natural gas, in 2008 the region consumed an estimated 191.3 bn cm, with demand of 254.3 bn cm targetedfor 2013, representing 32.9 % growth. Estimated production of 207.4 bn cm in 2008 should reach 289.9 bn cm in 2013, and implies 35.7 bn cm of net exports by the end of the period.

Venezuela contributed an estimated 15.95 % to 2008 regional gas consumption, while producing 14.7 %. By 2013, Venezuela is expected to consume 19.41 % of the region's gas, while contributing 18.97 % to supply.
"We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of 2.8 mm bpd by 2013, with the country expected to pump 2.35 mm bpd in 2009," BMI said.

Consumption beyond the economic weakness of 2009-10 is forecast to increase by 3 %/year to 2013, implying demand of 669,000 bpd by then and yielding an export capability of about 2.13 mm bpd by 2013. Gas production is forecast to rise from an estimated 30.5 bn cm in 2008 to 55 bn cm over the period, allowing 5.7 bn cm of exports by 2013.
"Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Venezuelan oil production of 20.6 %, with liquids volumes dipping to 2.35 mm bpd in 2009 before rising steadily to 3.1 mm bpd by 2018," the analyst said.

Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to increase by 27.5 %, with growth slowing to an assumed 3 %/year towards the end of the period and the country using 775,000 bpd by 2018.
Gas production is expected to rise steadily, from 30.5 bn cm in 2008 to 78 bn cm in 2018. With demand growth of 106.5 %, this implies export potential rising to 15 bn cm by 2018.