Country Analysis: Great Lakes Region

Nov 06, 2002 01:00 AM

Great Lakes Region: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda. The following provides a brief overview of the energy sectors of the Great Lakes region -- Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda.

Africa's Great Lakes region is located in eastern Africa and includes countries surrounding Lake Kivu, Lake Tanganyika, and Lake Victoria. Combined, Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda have a population of 108 mm people, and an estimated gross domestic product (GDP) in 2002 of about $ 24.4 bn (see Table 2).
Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda recently re-established the East African Community (EAC), which had been dissolved in 1977 due to political and economic differences. Under the EAC treaty signed in 1999 and officially implemented in January 2001, the three countries will negotiate the framework for a customs union over the next four years and will then move to establish a common market.

Officials also envisage a monetary and political union in a process which they say could take up to 20 years. Both Rwanda and Burundi have expressed interest in joining the EAC. Besides EAC, Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda are members of the Community of East and Southern African States (COMESA), formed in 1994 and composed of 20 countries in Eastern and Southern Africa.
Tanzania withdrew from COMESA in 2000, citing a high trade imbalance with COMESA-member countries, particularly Kenya. In October 2000, COMESA launched its free trade program, creating schedules for internal tariff reductions. Rwanda declined to participate in the COMESA free trade arrangement, citing the potential loss of government revenue.

In May 2002, Burundi announced a timetable for its entry into the COMESA free trade zone. By 2003 it plans to reduce tariffs by 80 %, and to implement a 100 % tariff reduction the following year. By 2004, COMESA aims to have a common external tariff structure for all third party trade, among other regional and cooperative goals. Tanzania is a member of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), an economic regional organization similar to COMESA (see Table 1 for the size and population of each country in the Great Lakes region).
The economies of the Great Lakes region states have different structures, and are at various stages of development. Uganda's economy grew at an estimated 5.1 % in 2001, while Kenya's real GDP grew at 0.9 % for the same year. Among the countries of the region, the rate of inflation ranged from 0.8 % in 2001 in Kenya, to 9.2 % in Burundi. All of the states in the Great Lakes region are dependent on foreign aid, with Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda classified as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) by the World Bank.

Energy overview
In 2000, the Great Lakes region nations collectively consumed 0.26 quadrillion Btu of commercial energy (less than 0.1 % of the world's total) and generated about 3.45 mm tons of carbon emissions (also less than 0.1 % of the world's total).
Kenya accounted for almost 60 % of the region's commercial energy consumption in 2000. Due to the relatively small urbanized population in the region, access to commercial energy sources is limited. The majority of the Great Lakes region population still relies on biofuel (wood, animal waste, etc.) as their primary fuel source. According to the World Bank, the number of regional inhabitants with access to electricity in 1996 ranged from 2.1 % in Burundi to 8 % in Kenya.
Commercial energy resources in the region include coal, natural gas (which is not yet being exploited), hydroelectricity, geothermal, and possibly some oil. In 2000, 79.6 % of electricity in the region was generated by hydroelectric plants and 16.4 % by geothermal. Oil prices in the Great Lakes Region have a significant impact on local economies, since the area is heavily dependent on oil imports.

Great Lakes regional oil consumption averaged about 84,000 bpd in 2001, almost all of which was imported. Kerosene is used extensively in rural areas for lighting and, in urban areas, for cooking and lighting. The countries of the region are attempting to discourage the use of wood fuel through joint provision of and promotion of the use of LPG.
Kenya has no known oil reserves of its own, and must import all of its 54,000 bpd consumption (see Table 3). Most Kenyan oil companies import their oil from Abu Dhabi's National Oil Corporation (ADNOC). Recently there has been talk of importing oil from Sudan, though the idea has been highly controversial because of concerns that the Sudanese government could be using oil revenues to finance its civil war against southern rebels.

In March 2002, Nigeria cancelled its crude oil supply contracts with Kenya after cutting its oil production to meet lower OPEC quotas. The Kenyan government has spent about $ 169 mm exploring for oil and natural gas over the past 15 years. Over 30 wells have been drilled so far, but with no success.
In August 2002, the Kenyan government executed agreements that grant exclusive exploration rights of blocks L6, L8, and L9 to Pancontinental Oil & Gas and Afrex. Altogether, the three blocks comprise a 21,400-sq km (12,840-mile) area on or near the Kenyan coastline. The joint venture is operated by Afrex, which holds a 60 % share, while Pancontinental holds the remaining 40 %.
Tanzania also relies exclusively on imports for its oil needs. Since 1980, foreign oil prospectors have invested more than $ 293 mm in search of oil in Tanzania without success. The government in Dar es Salaam continues to encourage oil exploration in the country, seeing oil as a key to economic development. State-owned Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) has signed several joint venture agreements with foreign oil exploration companies in recent years.

In August 2000, TPDC and a UK joint venture firm, Western Geophysical, completed the first comprehensive survey of oil deposits on the Indian Ocean floor off Tanzania's coastline. Western Geophysical brought in a specialized prospecting vessel to conduct the survey, which was designed to shed light on the possibilities of striking oil offshore.
Experts have long suspected that there are considerable hydrocarbon reserves off Tanzania's coast. Data from the $ 11 mm project was sold to interested oil companies as part of a new licensing round, launched in September 2000. The licensing round, which closed in April 2001, will open up over 24,000 square miles of deepwater acreage to exploration by dividing the Mafia Offshore Deep-sea Basin, stretching from Mnazi Bay in the south to Dar es Salaam in the north, into six licensing areas.
A second licensing round covering deepwater acreage to the north of Dar es Salaam was concluded in August 2002, calling for bids on 12 blocks. Bids were received from only two companies, Shell and Global Resources, both interested in blocks 9-12. In October 2002, exploration rights were granted to Shell for all four blocks. Shell plans to conduct 2D seismic surveys of the areas, then use the results to conduct 3D seismic surveys.

Uganda is especially vulnerable to rising oil prices, since it imports most of the oil it consumes (about 7,000 bpd) from Kenya's Mombasa refinery, which in turn imports crude oil from abroad. The oil is transported from Nairobi to Uganda by large tanker trucks. An alternative supply route through Tanzania has been developed running from Dar es Salaam to Mwanza by railroad and on to Jinja by lake ferry.
The imported oil is stored in one of 20 refined product storage depots, with a total capacity of 365,000 barrels (two-thirds owned by oil companies and one-third by the government). This inefficient transportation, along with high taxes on fuel imports, account for Uganda's high oil prices. The tax on oil also accounts for nearly 25 % of the country's total revenue. Uganda's oil industry was deregulated in 1994.

The rising price of imported oil products has accelerated Uganda's efforts to develop its domestic oil resources. Although Uganda has no proven oil or gas resources, some exploration is taking place, and there are signs that the western Rift Valley may contain hydrocarbon deposits. In September 2002, Heritage Oil Corporation announced that exploratory drilling operations had begun in Block 3, located in the Semliki Valley in western Uganda.
This is the first petroleum well ever drilled in the country, and is intended to confirm the results of Heritage Oil's seismic studies from 1999. That survey revealed a potential of nearly 1 bn barrels of oil in the Semliki Valley as well as the Pakwach basin area, northern and southern Lake Albert basin, and Lake George basin area. While financial difficulties forced Hardman Petroleum to abandon its license for the Lake Albert region in January 2000, other international oil companies, such as the China National Petroleum Corporation, have shown a growing interest in oil exploration in Uganda.

In May 1999, the Kenyan and Ugandan governments announced plans for an oil pipeline from Eldoret in western Kenya to Kampala, Uganda. The plans were finalized in a formal agreement signed by the two nations in October 2000.
Construction of the pipeline extension was set to begin in April 2002, although that date has been postponed indefinitely due to lack of investor interest. The extension would be constructed over a four year period, under the auspices of the EAC.
The $ 80 mm, 16,500-bpd pipeline will supply Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, north-western Tanzania and eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, and is expected to cut the price of oil in Uganda by almost half. Uganda currently imports most of its oil through Kenya's Mombasa refinery. While waiting for construction to begin, Uganda has started to import some cheaper refined petroleum products from overseas, rather than rely solely on the inefficient Mombasa refinery.
In August 2002, Tanzania and Zambia announced that they are considering privatising their jointly owned oil pipeline. A feasibility study is under way to determine whether the 1,710 km (1,060-mile) pipeline should remain under government control. At present, Tanzania holds a 33 % share in Tanzania-Zambia oil pipeline (TAZAMA), while Zambia holds the remaining 67 %.

There are two oil refineries in the Great Lakes region -- one in Kenya and one in Tanzania. The Kenya Petroleum Refinery-Mombasa unit has crude processing capacity of 90,000 bpd, and Tanzania's Kigamboni Dar es Salaam-Tanzanian & Italian Petroleum Refining facility has 14,900 bpd.
Kenya's refinery has been operating well below capacity and has struggled financially since the 1994 liberalization of the of the oil sector, which allowed local oil marketers to import finished petroleum products directly into the country. Kenya's energy minister has asked to review the base oil rule, which requires oil firms in Kenya to process 70 % of their crude oil at the Mombasa refinery.
In August 2002, the energy minister also pledged to make a decision on whether the refinery will begin to produce unleaded fuel, which it currently is unable to do. Although investors have spent approximately $ 45 mm to upgrade and automate the refinery since 1997, it has continued to operate at 60 % below capacity. In June 2000, the Kenyan government, which owns a 50 % stake in the refinery, announced plans to divest its shares.
Tanzania's refinery recently was closed after the World Bank urged the move, on the grounds that the refinery was no longer competitive following the liberalization of the country's petroleum industry. The refinery, which had been closed temporarily in November 1999 due to a payment dispute with TPDC, continues to act as an oil storage depot.

Natural gas
Rwanda and Tanzania currently are the only two nations in the Great Lakes region with proven natural gas reserves (see Table 4). Although natural gas is not produced or consumed in the region at present, several projects have been identified for expanded use of this resource.
In Tanzania, a project to exploit natural gas in the country's largest known field -- on Songo Songo Island, located in the Indian Ocean southeast of Dar-es-Salaam -- will soon be entering its final phase of development thanks to a proposed $ 200-mm World Bank loan, the terms of which were finalized in October 2001.
Construction of the pipeline is expected to begin before the end of 2002, and the project is expected to be completed in 2004. In August 2000, TransCanada Pipeline sold its 49 % stake in Songo Songo to a subsidiary of the US-based AES Corporation. In October 2002, the firm Larsen and Toubro was awarded the contract to collect natural gas for processing.
The project involves a 140-mile pipeline from Songo Songo to a gas-fired plant in Dar-es-Salaam to provide fuel for a major thermal power plant and other industrial users. Natural gas will be collected from two onshore wells and from three offshore wells, then processed at a gas plant on Songo Songo Island. Once the project is completed, the five liquid fuel turbines at the 112-MW Ubungo power plant will be converted to gas and the power generated by the plant will be fed directly into the national grid. Songo-Songo's reserves are estimated at 1 tcf.

Tanzania is the only country in the Great Lakes region with significant coal resources. Total recoverable coal reserves in the Lake Victoria region amount to 220 mm short tons (see Table 5). The primary use of coal in the region is in the generation of electricity. In May 1999, China's Hunan International Economic and Technical Cooperation Company bought 62 % of Tanzania's Kiwira coal mine.
The Tanzanian government kept a 38 % share. Kiwira, situated in southern Tanzania near the border with Malawi, could become East Africa's largest coal producer. The new company, Tanzania-China Kiwira Coal and Power, plans to triple annual output to 300,000 short tons both for domestic use and for export, mainly to China. Large coal deposits also exist in the Ruhuhu river area, and are estimated to be the best quality reserves Tanzania possesses.
In November 2000, the Kenyan Ministry of Energy announced that it was budgeting $ 500,000 for coal prospecting in order to diversify its fuel sources for electricity generation. Hydroelectric power currently accounts for over 70 % of Kenya's electricity generation. The Ministry of Energy is searching for coal in the Mui and Mutitu basins in Mwingi and Kitui districts, although no deposits have been found to date.

In 2000, installed electric generating capacity for the Great Lakes region totalled about 1,900 MW. Electricity generation for the region in 2000 was 9.25 bn kWh, the majority of which -- 7.36 bn kWh -- was hydroelectricity (see Table 6). Total Great Lakes region electricity consumption was 8.7 bn kWh. Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda are developing plans to share power supplies, including a regional energy interconnectivity plan that will enable any EAC country to connect with another nation's electricity supply.
Among the nations of the region, Uganda has the biggest hydropower potential (from the Nile River) and would play a major part in any power-sharing project. In March 2002, Kenya's Kipevu II power plant was officially inaugurated. The $ 86 mm plant has the capacity to generate 74 MW of hydroelectricity for the nation, which suffered from severe energy shortages between 1999 and 2001.
Owned by Tsavo Power Company, the plant will increase Kenya's installed electric capacity by about 25 % by providing thermal energy. Kenya's recent energy shortages stem from its over-reliance on hydroelectricity and the prolonged droughts the nation has faced. The Kipevu II power plant will be subject to Kenya's new environmental regulations, as well as environmental requirements set by the World Bank. Funding by the World Bank had previously been withheld due to Kenya's failure to meet with certain World Bank criteria.

Other electric expansion projects include Olkaria II and the Sondu Miriu project. Olkaria II will provide Kenya with 64 MW of geothermal electricity when it is completed. At present, the first 32-MW turbine is scheduled for completion in November 2002. Funding for the project is provided by the World Bank, the European Investment Bank (EIB), Kreditanstalt for Wiederaufbau, and Kenya Electricity Generating Company.
The Sondu Miriu project will consist of building a 60-MW hydroelectric power station located in Kenya's Nyanza province along Lake Victoria. It is being constructed by Konoike Construction JV, Vieddeke Heavy Construction Company of Norway, and Murray & Roberts Contractors International of South Africa. Construction began in 1999 and is expected to be completed in 2005. Funded largely by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, the project has been on hold since June 2001 when funds were suspended due to environmental concerns. Japan may release the remaining money to complete the project if Kenya meets World Bank and IMF requirements.

In June 2000, Nairobi agreed to the accelerated construction of two, 55-MW, diesel-fired power plants at a cost of $ 135 mm. Located in the towns of Lanet and Eldoret, the two plants are still under construction, despite assurances that they would come online by 2001. In August 2000, contracts were signed for construction of two thermal power plants with a combined capacity of 105-MW in Embakasi and Ruaraka. The government also announced plans to significantly expand the storage capacity of the Masinga Dam, ensuring hydroelectric generation for over a year.
Tanzania's sole producer and supplier of electricity, Tanzania Electric Supply Company (Tanesco) continues to face a severe budgetary shortfall, due largely to a multi-million dollar bill for past electricity consumption owed to the company by the Tanzanian government.
In July 2002, the company cut off the electricity to a number of government and residential buildings in an attempt to increase revenues by forcing consumers to pay their past due bills. Tanzania recently hired external managers to run the state-owned power company.

The managers from Net Group Solutions in South Africa have met with strong opposition from Tanesco workers since taking over in May 2002. Concerns centre around whether the small firm will be able to effectively manage Tanzania's electricity grid. This is the first step to the eventual privatisation of the nation's largest energy firm.
Tanesco has been working to develop a number of power projects. Construction was completed on the Kihansi hydroelectric dam in April 2000. Kihansi, located 341 miles southwest of Dar Es Salaam, has a capacity of 180 MW but has been operating at nearly 50 % capacity due to on-going efforts to save the Kihansi spray toad, which is threatened by the dam.
Other projects include the Malaysian 100-MW IPTL power project (currently on hold), the 37-MW Songo Songo gas project, and UK's Agrreko 100-MW power project. In late January 1998, the Tanzanian government signed an agreement with Tornado Resources for the development of a $ 32.5-mm natural gas-fired, electric power project in southern Tanzania. The project uses gas from the 500-bn cf Mnazi Bay gas field in the town of Mtwara, transported through a 16-mile gas pipeline, to a 20-MW power plant.

In January 2001, Tanzania, Kenya and Zambia agreed to implement cross-border electricity trade, a two-year project estimated to cost over $ 153.5 mm. The project will entail the construction of 372 miles of power lines from Zambia to Mbeya, and from Arusha to Nairobi. Given its connection to the SADC power grid, Zambia will be able to sell low-cost and reliable electricity to Kenya and Tanzania.
Uganda will be exporting more electricity to Kenya to relieve that nation's electricity shortages. Once the Bujagali plant is completed, it will be able to export an additional 80 MW of the 200 MW generated by the new plant. Uganda also played a role in alleviating the power crisis in Kenya during the drought by exporting electricity to the East African country from the Kiyara Power Station, a $ 230 mm extension project in Jinja completed in June 2000. In its final phase, Kiyara willhave an installed capacity of 240 MW. President Museveni predicted in May 2000 that Uganda would significantly raise its electricity exports to Tanzania and Rwanda.

Uganda is seeking $ 1.69 bn in foreign investment over the next ten years to upgrade its energy sector. In April 1999, British consultants carried out a national energy plan for Uganda which later received government approval. The plan listed five electricity generation units, including the Bujagali hydroelectric facility (250 MW-2,000 MW), Karuma dam (100 MW-200 MW), promoted by Norpak, and the rehabilitation of the Nalubaale dam (formerly the Owens Falls dam) (180 MW) and its extension (five units of 40 MW each). Under the plan, Uganda's government is to retain ownership of existing power stations, but will be able to cede them to private operators under leasing agreements.
In August 2002, the South African energy firm Eskom Enterprises made the sole bid for management of the Uganda Electricity Generation Concession (UEGC). The firm offered to charge $ 41.7 mm and is seeking a 12 % rate of return on any investments. Eskom plans to spend $ 35.8 mm in generation and maintenance costs.

The controversial Bujagali dam project was put on hold in July 2002, when the World Bank decided to suspend its support pending further study of the project's environmental consequences. The $ 550 mm hydroelectric dam would be East Africa's largest foreign direct investment project. Opponents say that the dam would be damaging to the environment and would promote excessively high electricity prices in the country.
A major loan from Nigeria intended to upgrade Burundi's power sector was put on hold in July 2002, in part due to concerns over the ongoing civil war. The $ 243 mm loan would have been borrowed by Nigeria from the African Development Bank and the Arab Bank, which would in turn loan the money to Burundi.
Burundi would then have used the loan to clear its debts with the African Development Bank and the Arab bank, as well as finance various power projects, including the first phase of the Mpanda power station. That project would involve the construction of a dam, a 10.4-MW power station, and a transmission line to connect the station with the national grid. The loan would have financed smaller projects, such as installing electricity in 14 villages, doubling the capacity of the Buhinga hydroelectric station, and renovating the medium voltage network in Bujumbura.

In July 2002, the Israeli Electric Company announced that it was conducting a preliminary study on using Lake Kivu's methane gas reserves to supply a power station in Rwanda. If built, the power station would have a capacity of 25 MW, or 2.5 times the amount of electricity currently produced by Rwanda's national utility company, Electrogaz.
One consultancy has stated that it believes Kivu's methane gas reserves could generate as much as 200 MW. A similar project has been under development since 2001, in which a local company, Gisenyi Electric and Gas Company hopes to construct a plant that would have an initial capacity of 2.5 MW and eventually increase to 10 MW.
Rwanda's cabinet ratified its entry into the African Energy Commission (AFREC) in May 2002, citing the country's need for access to low electricity rates to enhance its development. In November 2000, Rwanda and Burundi announced plans for the joint construction of the Ruzizi III hydroelectric dam on the Ruzizi River along the Rwanda-Burundi border. In July 2000, the Burundi National Assembly voted to liberalize its electricity sector, ending the monopoly of the state electric utility.

Renewable energy
Kenya has two steam stations, the Olkaria renewable power station (45 MW) and the Kipevu Thermal Station (45.5 MW). Nairobi is promoting additional geothermal power, and hopes to increase its production threefold by 2003 when two new geothermal power plants, costing $ 155 mm, are completed at Olkaria.
Construction of the 64-MW Olkaria II plant began in January 2000 and by October 2000 was injecting 13 MW into the national grid. The Olkaria III geothermal plant has been constructed and is expected to have a generating capacity of 64 MW by July 2003. Kenya currently produces about 1.0 bn kWh of geothermal power, nearly 30 % of net electricity generation. The Kenyan Energy Ministry estimates that Kenya has a potential for over 2,000 MW of installed capacity of geothermal electricity, second only to New Zealand.
In November 2000, China pledged to fund a $ 180,000-solar-energy project designed to provide energy to rural Kenyan educational institutions over the next two years. Similarly, US-based NGOs donated $ 600,000 worth of solar equipment to Uganda and other countries of the region. Ugandan banks also launched a program in July 2000 designed to extend credit to local entrepreneurs needing solar equipment.

Summary tables

Table 1. Great Lakes country overview
Country area (sq miles) Population, mm (2001E) Head of State
Burundi 27,830 7.0 President Pierre Buyoya
Kenya 224,961 31.9 President Daniel Arap Moi
Rwanda 26,338 8.2 President Paul Kagame
Tanzania 364,899 36.8 President Benjamin William Mkapa
Uganda 91,135 24.8 President Yoweri Museveni

Great Lakes Region
Total 735,163 102.2

Source: CIA World Factbook 2001; DRI-WEFA World Overview, September 2002

Table 2.
Great Lakes Region economic overview
Country Nominal GDP ($ bn) 2001E Real GDP
Growth rate 2001E Inflation rate 2001E US Merchandise trade ($ mm) 2001
Currency exports to Imports from Name exch. rate 10/21/02 $ 1 =
Burundi 0.7 3.3 % 9.2 % 5.30 2.80 Franc 1,022.79
Kenya 11.0 0.9 % 0.8 % 577.70 128.30 Shilling 78.97
Rwanda 1.9 2.7 % 6.6 % 17.30 7.20 Franc 476.19
Tanzania 8.9 5.1 % 5.1% 44.70 32.20 Shilling 970.18
Uganda 6.1 5.1 % 6.1 % 31.70 17.70 Shilling 1,800.86

Great Lakes Region
Total 27.7 -- -- 676.7 188.2
US Trade Balance 488.4
Source: WEFA World Overview September 2002; US Dept. of Commerce, International Trade Administration

Table 3.
Great Lakes Region petroleum overview
Country Estimated proven crude reserves -- 1/02 (mm barrels)
Crude oil production (bpd) 2002E
Crude oil refining capacity (bpd) 1/02
Oil consumption (bpd) 2002E
Burundi 0 0 02,000
Kenya 0 0 90,000 56,000
Rwanda 0 0 05,000
Tanzania 0 0 14,900* 16,000
Uganda 0 0 07,000

Great Lakes Region
Total 0 0 104,900 86,000
Source: Oil & Gas Journal; Energy Information Administration
*Note: Tanzania's refinery isno longer operational, and is now being used as an oil storage depot.

Table 4.
Great Lakes Region natural gas overview
Country Estimated proven gas reserves (bn cf) 1/02
Gas production (bn cf) 2000E Gas consumption (bn cf) 2000E
Burundi 0 0 0
Kenya 0 0 0
Rwanda 2,000 0 0
Tanzania 800 0 0
Uganda 0 0 0

Great Lakes Region
Total 2,800 0 0
Source: Oil and Gas Journal; Energy Information Administration

Table 5.
Great Lakes Region coal overview
Country Estimated recoverable coal reserves (mm short tons)
Coal production (mm short tons) 2000E Coal consumption (mm short tons) 2000E
Burundi 0 0 0
Kenya 0 0 0.08
Rwanda 0 0 0
Tanzania 220 0.01 0.01
Uganda 0 0 0

Great Lakes Region
Total 220 0.01 0.09
Source: Energy Information Administration

Table 6.
Great Lakes Region electricity overview
Country Installed capacity (MW) 1/00 Net generation (bn kWh) 2000E
Consumption (bn kWh) 2000E Trade (bn kWh) 2000E
Total thermal hydroelectric Imports Exports
Burundi 49 0.15 0.00 10.15 0.17 0.03 0
Kenya 93 34.62 1.0 3.25 4.43 0.15 0
Rwanda 30.6 0.11 0.00 30.11 0.17 0.07 0.001
Tanzania 620 2.77 0.5 2.27 2.62 0.05 0
Uganda 280 1.6 0.01 51.58 1.31 0.00 10.18

Great Lakes Region
Total 1,91 2.6 9.25 1.51 97.3 68.7 0.30 10.11
Source: Energy Information Administration

Source: EIA
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