Nabucodonosor and Europe's gasification

by Andrei Fedyashin

Mr Reinhard Mitschek, managing director of the Nabucco Gas Pipeline International GmbH, must be Giuseppe Verdi's most ardent admirer in today's cold Europe. The name of his company comes from Nabucodonosor, or Nabucco for short, a Verdi opera of an Italian libretto based on the biblical story. It follows the plight of the Jews as they are released from Babylonian captivity and portrays Nabucodonosor's temporary insight into the gist of the events.
This could be taken as a clue hinting at Europe's desire to rid itself of Russia's gas captivity. From the 21st floor of a skyscraper near the Danube River in Vienna, Mr Mitschek can already see Europe's bright gas future, free of Russian gas dependence and Russian-Ukrainian gas squabbles. He is convinced that now everyone in Europe is aware of the urgent need to build the Nabucco gas pipeline, which is supposed to bring Caspian gas right to the heart of Central Europe.

Most European politicians are optimistic about the Nabucco pipeline, but gas experts do not share this attitude. They believe the Nabucco project exemplifies politicization of the gas market rather than a realistic analysis of its potentialities. Nabucco seems to exist only in political minds.
Its construction was supposed to be launched in 2008, then this year, and now in 2010. In recent estimates, its construction costs have reached EUR 8 bn. The main problem is that few believe it will pay for itself. The Nabucco pipeline has to transport no less than 30 bn cm of gas per year to find a profit. But there simply may not be such volumes of available gas in the near future.

Azerbaijan intends to launch the extraction of its Shah Deniz-2 gas deposit only in 2013, estimated to produce a mere eight bn cm of gas annually. Experts are warning that Russia is already fighting for these cm, and it is still unclear to whom Azerbaijan will sell its gas.
Nabucco's main transit country, Turkey, insists on getting 15 % of its gas at a discount. Ankara is very unhappy about Brussels' refusal to admit it to the European Union (EU), and is not likely to make any concessions. This Turkish demand makes Nabucco unprofitable before it has even been launched.

Few European experts have been too excited over the recent reports by the respectable British energy company, Gaffney, Cline & Associates (GCA), which reaffirmed that gas reserves in Turkmenistan are many times bigger than was previously believed: from the low estimate (proven deposits) of 4 tcm to the high estimate (potential reserves) of 14 tn tons.
However, Turkmenistan does not have the potential to quickly enhance its gas production. It is barely coping with its gas commitments to Russia and other countries. Today, it is producing about 80 bn cm of gas per year, and will have to double the production to at least 150 bn-155 bn cm to fulfil its contractual commitments.

European experts believe that Turkmenistan will not be able to increase its gas production to meet European needs for at least another 20years. The same is true of Iraq and Iran.
In the near future, there will be no alternative to Russia as a gas supplier.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.