The last frontier

by A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari

Introduction
The international oil industry did coin the term of “frontier area” to designate the provinces it had most recently entered in its quest for petroleum resources. As a matter of fact, in its four-yearly Olympiad known as the “World Petroleum Congress” (WPC), the oil industry used to have a major panel session dedicated to highlighting and reviewing the latest developments in such frontier areas.
These very special sessions were fascinating as they gave (in a pre-Internet era) the first technical glimpses on the fresh regions about to be tackled by the industry. Therefore, they were usually well attended and I was amongst the legions of oil experts eager to be given the early reports on these latest oil and gas provinces.

I remember never missing such critical lectures whenever I attended a WPC; and, thereafter, I did collect the sessions' pamphlets in a special file (alongside with the WPC pamphlets on “Crude Oil Reserves” and “Natural Gas Reserves” --- with the latter ending in the dustbin after I had finally met with Dr Colin Campbell and Mr Jean Laherrere).
It was in these “frontiers” sessions that I first got acquainted with the North Sea, Alaska and most of the future Non-OPEC success stories (Oman, Egypt, Kazakhstan, etc.) before being duly educated on “unconventional oil” (Canadian tar sands and Venezuela's Orinoco heavy oil) and the multiple offshores -- first shallow waters, then deep ones and finally the ultra-deep waters (e.g., Gulf of Mexico, Brazil and West Africa).

Frontiers dry up
By the mid-1990s, it had become evidently clear that the “frontier areas” had dried up; consequently, its WPC session vanished into thin air. At first, “frontiers” cancellation came as a surprise; but, it was nevertheless a logical consequence to the undeniable fact that there were no such areas left to explore!!
The industry had by then covered the whole globe both onshore and offshore -- exception made for the two polar regions, the Arctic and Antarctica, which were of course out-of-bounds and too far-fetched for any potential follow-up (as me and my colleagues concluded back then).

Polar oil reserves
According to Dr Colin Campbell, the world's most distinguished among oil reserves' specialists, so-called “polar oil” reserves are estimated at a grand total of only 52 bn barrels [1] -- less than two years' supply of current global consumption.
Moreover, Dr Campbell predicted that total “polar oil” output would average roughly 1 mm bpd in 2010 rising to 2 mm bpd by 2020 and eventually peak around 2.5 mm bpd in around 2030 --- followed by a rapid decline thereafter.

The Arctic region
Towards the close of the 20th century, however, it began to emerge that expectations about polar regions being “out-of-bounds” were unduly optimistic. Before long, the Arctic showed up on the oil industry's radar and focused its interests.
Within the past few years, both oil exploration and exploitation within the Arctic Circle have become reality -- with everyone having gotten used to it by now (no more raised eyebrows anymore). It was yet another telling symptom of how desperate the oil industry was to leave no stone unturned -- even in the highly inhospitable iced waters of the Arctic Ocean. Of course, costs would have been prohibitive not so long ago, but with crude at its current $ 70/bbl they are now readily taken in stride.

The US “Arctic National Wildlife Refuge” (ANWR) and its “1002” coastal area are constantly making headlines -- latest in date is the US House of Representatives passing a Bill (by a 225-201 vote) to open up the ANWR coastal plain to oil exploration [2]. Also in Alaska, the Mackenzie River Delta and the Chukchi Sea/Hope Basin/ Norton Basin areas are in the process of being developed.
Further east, other prospects are the Orphan Basin (north-eastern Canada) and Greenland (six wells drilled off South Baffin Bay and a $ 25 mm Statoil dry hole). Not to forget the Barents Sea with the Snoehvit gas field (and its LNG plant), the Goliat oil field (with estimated recoverable reserves of 250 mm barrels) and Russia's supergiant Shtokman gas field (113 tcf reserves).

Moreover, Russia is developing the five phases on its Sakhalin Island with foreign PSA partners (a.o., ExxonMobil and Shell).
In addition, the Circum-Arctic International Consortium (US, UK, Canada, France, Norway, Denmark and Greenland) has awarded the US Geological Survey (USGS) and the Danish GEUS, a research program "to stratigaphically map the Arctic and compile its original tectonics and oil source rocks" [3] with results due in 2007: the International Polar Year (IPY).

The last frontier
With the Arctic presently being explored, our small planet is only left with one “last frontier”: Antarctica. Besides the southern iced continent, sprawling over some 14 mm sq km, the rest has now been thoroughly tackled for oil and gas. It is to be hoped that the iced continent will long remain off-bounds to oil and gas rigs.
The Antarctic Treaty (now signed by 45 Participating States) calls for "a mining ban until the year 2048" [4].

And there are good reasons to envision that oil and gas exploration might prove tricky in Antarctica as Mother Nature has made conditions down there so extreme that even thinking of tapping its vast expanses makes one shudder in disbelief. Not only is it the driest, windiest (peak gusts of 288 km/hr) and coldest of all continents, but it is also dark 24 hours a day during its long winter.
And, during its austral summer (from early October to late February) it only provides a two-month window for effective construction work. So that only the continent's 20 mm penguins and a handful of other animal species have been able to adapt to its inhuman conditions.

It should also be borne in mind that drilling into ice is a messy and very cumbersome affair; with things not easier in the icy Antarctica waters. Not to mention exploitation, with its continuous production imperatives and downstream logistics of pipelines, storage tanks and transport by ice-breaking tankers.
But to a world thirsty for oil nothing looks impossible -- especially when oil prices will have skyrocketed to those stratospheric heights which are difficult to visualize today but will leave us yearning for any benign two-digit prices.

Enters Peak Oil
Whether we like it or not, all developed societies are addicted to crude oil and its myriad derivatives. Many decision-makers are trying to park “Peak Oil” in the farthest corner of their minds (praying it will go away), and remain in denial that there is no replacement for oil but possibly solar energy (if it can be transmuted into a “cheap” energy -- now available for a very expensive $ 7,000 to $ 10,000 per MW of output).
Neither natural gas nor coal can easily take over; as for the so-called renewables they will only provide energy niches without ever being able to replace the massive mainstream oil use (still providing around 40% of our global energy needs).

But, as worldwide crude output enters its inevitable decline, one cannot rest assured that some oil industry executive will not take his chance (against all odds) in Antarctica! It is not the existing international regulations that are going to stop anyone trying. And, although only seven of the major Participants States in the Antarctic Treaty have territorial claims, nobody seems to agree as "all claims are now frozen... and few of the 45 signatories recognise them and most countries build stations regardless" [5] with some 40 national bases already operating and nineteen others being planned (even one by super-minnow Estonia).
From a total population of roughly 4,000 in summer, Antarctica drops to around 1,000 people during its long and dark winter. Also worth a mention is that the number of tourists is continuously rising and a record 38,000 are expected during the current year.

Early inroads
In addition to polar-tourism, some fresh inroads have recently been made in Antarctica. Firstly, the $ 20 mm “Ice Highway” linking the US stations of “McMurdo” and “Amundsen-Scott” (at the South Pole) is being traced over 1,632 km of ice by the Americans (allegedly to enhance scientific research and facilitate transport in-between). Over the past three summers some 680 km have already been completed and plans are being made to lay a $ 250 mm fibre-optic cable along the “Highway” to transfer data between the two bases.
Secondly, the Australians are putting the final touch to their brand-new $ 46 mm Wilkins “Ice Runway” stretching over some 4 km to allow for intercontinental flights by 2007.

Thirdly, new sophisticated state-of-the-art polar stations are being designed and built to become permanent habitats on the Antarctica landscape. The British “Halley VI” base is being mounted on four “60-tons pods” which act as skis so that the whole base which is fully-equipped "with bedrooms, laboratories, and store rooms, as well as a gym, a sauna, a games room, a climbing wall and a green house in which fresh fruit and vegetables can be grown in nutrient-enriched water" [6] can be displaced on ice to the contrary of its five predecessors which were fixed and thus bound to be finally sacrificed (due to the ice shelf's massive movements) and left to rot in the ice cap.
Fourthly, Australia has lately decided to claim the continental shelf bordering its 5.6 mm sq km territorial Antarctica land (roughly 40% of the total landmass, clearly the lion's share) in view of possible future developments. This strategic gambit might be seen in the future as a timely and wise decision indeed.

Consultative meeting
Over June 12 to 23, 2006, some 300 delegates from 45 countries did gather at Edinburgh to partake in the 29th Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM). Among others at this meeting, the “Site Guidelines for Visitors to Antarctica” were tabled (after seven years of negotiations) and a delegate judiciously remarked that: "issues affecting the Antarctic reflect on the rest of the world" [7].
In yetanother parallel event, Australian Senator Barnaby Joyce, upon his return from a four-week visit to Antarctica, did cause a furore by declaring that: "Australia should tap the mineral resources in its claim before other countries get in first" [8] arguing that: "The desire may be to leave Antarctica as a pristine wilderness, but the reality is that it is not going to be left untouched and untapped... There are resources there, they will be exploited. It is just the way of the world... People are always going to be on the lookout to get them... “Once it becomes affordable for people to do this in Antarctica, they will just turn up and do it, whether or not there is an agreement in place" [9]

That all might sound rather pessimistic, but nonetheless quite realistic as well! Hopefully the question of affordability will help push the first steps of developments further down in the future.
But, one day the Antarctica gold rush could eventually occur. Then, Australia's overall responsibility for managing and regulating things down there could be of critical importance for the iced continent -- possibly much higher than her share of the potential bounty...

Conclusion
In just five years' time, the world will celebrate the Centenary Anniversary of the South Pole conquest by the heroic Norwegian pioneer Roald Amundsen (1872-1928) and reminisce once again over the tragedy befalling Captain Robert Scott (1868-1912) and his courageous companions on their return trip from "The Last Place on Earth" [10].
Within the past century, the planet's “Last Place” has been gradually transmuted into the 'Last Frontier' of humanity -- a fact that neither Amundsen nor Scott could have ever dreamed of as they battled the elements on their way to their polar goal.

Back in 1987, world consciousness rose to the challenge of “Ozone Depletion” over Antarctica and duly framed the Montreal Protocol [11] which brought about the successful ban of CFCs. Now, two decades after Montreal, one is left to wonder if Mankind would not be better off leaving its “Last Frontier” to its millions of penguins, by placing it deliberately “off-limits” thus trying to ingratiate itself with God Almighty -- Who doesn't need our graces, but delights in a touch of humility.
The final question remains of whether Homo Sapiens has finally reached the state of wisdom that will allow him to make such crucial decisions? Decisions upon which his survival on the planet might ultimately come to depend!

As for the planet's survival, James Lovelock (the father of “Gaia Theory”) ventured: "Save the planet?? We can't save the planet…”
“We never could…"

References
[1] See ASPO Newsletter #66 (May 2006) for the latest estimates issued by Dr Campbell on “polar oil”.
[2] House of Representatives passed this Bill for the “tenth time” [!] according to the ANWR website .
[3] In AAPG Explorer (issue November 2004) p.6.
[4] Barbie Dutter, “Antarctic Cold Rush raises fears for last great wilderness”, The Daily Telegraph (June 4, 2006).
[5] Andrew Darby, “March of the building workers threatens Antarctica”, Sydney Morning Herald (April 18, 2006).
[6] Catriona Davis, “New job, day one”, The Daily Telegraph (May 15, 2006).
[7] See the ATCM website at .
[8] Barbie Dutter, ref. [4] above.
[9] Ibid.
[10] Taken from the title of Roland Huntford's 1999 bestseller.
[11] The “Ozone Secretariat” of the “UN Environment Program” (UNEP) can be found at http://ozone.unep.org